NFL Football
2012-01-07 - Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Wild Card Round
Saturday 7 January 2012 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The New Orleans Saints (13-3) have to be considered the hottest team in the NFL coming into the Play Offs and they have been unbeatable in front of their raucous crowd this year. The biggest hurdles of the Saints returning to the SuperBowl look further down the line, although they cannot afford to take a double-digit underdog lightly as we all saw what happened to the Saints when they met the Seattle Seahawks last season at this same stage.
The Detroit Lions (10-6) were the darlings of the NFL earlier this season, but they really faded down the stretch and this looks a big ask for a franchise that has not played in the Play Offs since 1999. The Lions have shown they are a powerful Offensive unit, but they have really had a hard time stopping teams and that is not the best way to face a team containing the passing yards leader of all time.
I have almost no doubt that the New Orleans Saints will be able to torch this Secondary and I expect a huge game from Drew Brees. The Lions allowed a second string Packers QB to exploit them heavily last week, giving up 45 points in a loss when they were favoured by almost 7 points at kick off. Brees threw for over 5400 yards this season and has a plethora of weapons that would be the envy of almost all, barring Green Bay, in the NFL.
Brees has been particularly effective at home this season where they have averaged 42 points per game and he should get plenty of help from the running game that has averaged 4.9 yards per carry. That is also down to the fact that the Lions have struggled to stop the run this season and all in all it looks like the Saints will be able to move the chains at will.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit have a very good QB themselves in Matt Stafford, one of only 3 players to surpass 5000 yards through the air this season. He should have plenty of opportunities to move the ball through the air barring his team makes the same mistakes that have blighted their season. In the first meeting between the teams, the Lions committed close to 10 Offensive penalties and there is no way you can beat a team like the Saints doing that.
Stafford should have success as he has some very good weapons in the Offense, including Calvin Johnson who I consider to be in the top 3 WRs in the NFL. The Saints Secondary does give up plenty of big plays, but they can create turnovers so Stafford will need to be on his game.
He could be helped a lot by the presence of Kevin Smith in the backfield, a player that can at least keep the Saints honest and also afford Stafford some protection. The Saints allow 5 yards per carry so Smith could at least help the Lions when it comes to clock management and will also allow Stafford a bit more time in the pocket when he is passing.
Head to Head
New Orleans have crushed Detroit on the last 3 occasions they have met each other since 2008, winning the games both straight up and against the spread.
The Saints won by 14 when the teams met here earlier in the season, although Detroit contributed to their own downfall with a badly executed game plan and penalties.
New Orleans are 12-4 against the spread this season, Detroit are 7-7-2.
Other Interesting Trends
New Orleans are 8-0 against the spread this season at home. In fact, they are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 at home.
They are 20-7-1 against the spread in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record.
Detroit are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 road games.
Prediction
I am going to back the New Orleans Saints to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Saints have learned from last seasons disappointment against the Seattle Seahawks and will be very focused in this game.
Second, Detroit can be a little foolish in terms of giving away penalties and they could struggle to keep up with the Saints if they keep going backwards in terms of yardage.
Third, New Orleans are the hottest team in the NFL and have been untouchable at home where they have covered the spread in every game this season.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New Orleans Saints 38-27 Detroit Lions
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the New Orleans Saints -10 Points @ 2.00
