NFL Football
2012-01-07 - Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Saturday, January 7th, 2012, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
The Lions have waited 12 years for this chance and they are finally in the postseason, just 3 years after they went 0-16. They finished 10-6, thanks to the insane play of QB Matthew Stafford, who came so close to breaking Dan Marino's regular season record of 5,084.
Stafford threw for 5,038 yards with 41 TDs and 16 interceptions. But one man did break that 27 year old record, Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB threw for a staggering 5,476 yards with 46 TDs and 14 picks. This is the first time in NFL postseason history where the 2 opposing QBs have both gone for over 5,000 yards and 40 TDs in the regular season.
The Saints went 13-3 in the regular season, including a perfect 8-0 at home. One of those games was against Detroit, who they beat 31-17. It was however, 1 of only 3 home games where they did not score 40. Indeed, this is the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL, behind Green Bay.
Many will look at last weeks loss against Green Bay, who fielded a backup QB Matt Flynn, who had 6 TDs! That is misleading though, as one should see how well Detroit did manage to do on offence themselves. The bounceback from that last loss to New Orleans was impressive, as the Lions reeled off 3 straight wins. Last weeks loss to Green Bay came by a 45-41 score.
When New Orleans beat Detroit here by 14 points, they did it against a Detroit team missing some very important players. The defence here will be stronger, and the resolve, much stronger. That last game saw the Lions play without suspended Tackle Ndamukong Suh, last years defensive rookie of the year. Also missing were cornerback Chris Houston and free safety Louis Delmas, who were injured. They're all back for this one.
I'm not doubting for a second New Orleans ability to win this comfortably, but to do it by more than 10 point again will be difficult. Remember last year, when they were heavy favs yet got dumped out by pisspoor Seattle. Upsets can happen, and while I'm not saying it will here, we should not expect Detroit to just get rolled over. They will have made adjustments from last time, and they do have Stafford, who can score.
BETTING VERDICT
That extra 0.5 point is what swings it for me here. In terms of value, Detroit are the play as that extra start takes the number past the key number and New Orleans will likely have to win by 13 or 14 to cover.
I don't see that happening on will take Detroit with the points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New Orleans Saints
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Detroit Lions +10.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
