NCAA Football
2012-01-07 - SMU Mustangs at Pittsburgh Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF : COMPASS BOWL
Saturday, January 7th, 2012, 1:00PM US
(6:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Pittsburgh and SMU have average records and come into this Compass Bowl game having not met since 1983. I'm happy to report neither team returns any starters from that game. Jokes aside though, Pittsburgh are actually playing in this Bowl game for the 2nd straight year, having beaten Kentucky 27-10 last year. SMU are 3.5 point underdogs.
SMU finished 7-5 in the regular season, with a 5-3 record in C-USA but they limped in going 2-4 in their final 6 games. They gave up 102 points in their last 3 road games, while scoring just 17. That is a glaring stat for what is essentially an away game. The other big concern is turnovers, as SMU are notoriously bad, having coughed the ball up 31 times all season, worst in the country!
The Pittsburgh Panthers finished 6-6 overall and 4-3 in the Big East. QB Tino Sunseri has a better completion rate than SMU's McDermott, completing 64% to his 59.5% but his TD:INT ratio is the same. Sunseri has 10 passing TDs and 10 picks, while McDermott has 16 picks and 16 TDs. Pretty dire stuff.
Defence is where Pittsburgh score for me, for along with the turnovers they are bound to force, they will surely cause mayhem with the number of sacks they have been accumulating. Pittsburgh have the 4th most sacks in the country, 3.25 per game. Aaron Donald has 10 for himself and will be one for McDermott to look out for.
I think Pittsburgh would win this, even if the next bit of news did not exist, but it will surely make a difference in terms of ATS betting. SMU's best weapon, RB Zach Line, is out with a toe-injury. He accounted for 17 TDs and will be sorely missed.
BETTING VERDICT
I'm going to take a chance here even though I hate to give up the extra 0.5 point and shall recommend a small bet on Pittsburgh -3.5 as I can see them coming through to win this Bowl again.
The Pick :
Pittsburgh
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Pittsburgh -3.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
