NCAA Football
2012-01-06 - Kansas State at Arkansas
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF : AT&T COTTON BOWL
Friday, January 6th, 2012, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
AT&T Cotton Bowl match this Friday, featuring the Kansas State Wildcats and the Arkansas Razorbacks, both of whom come into this with 10-2 regular season records. For me, Arkansas' record is stronger, because the 2 losses they suffered came away from home, and against the #1 and #2 teams, LSU and Alabama.
There isn't a huge difference in the points these two are scoring, with Kansas State scoring 33.1 per game and Arkansas putting up 37.4 per game. Arkansas' average scoring is higher, and only LSU and Alabama could keep them below 29 points.
What helps Arkansas in a big way is their passing game. Behind the throwing of QB Tyler Wilson, the Razorbacks have 3,422 passing yards and 22 TDs, with just 6 interceptions. Quick scores look likely for them here with that kind of play.
The passing for Kansas State won't be anywhere near as dangerous as their QB Collin Klein is the teams top rusher. He has gotten the team 26 TDs on the ground, gaining a team high 1,099 rushing yards. It's worth noting that he is moving the ball on the ground at 3.8 yards per carry, way worse than the 6.3 yards per carry managed by the Arkansas's best rusher. I don't see him troubling Arkansas as much, and when you note that he is completing just 57.8% of the passes he does attempt, along with his meagre 12:5 TD:INT ratio, it makes him look fairly harmless.
Arkansas have the tools to gain huge yardage through the air, fast, and this will translate into a lot of points. Look for Wilson to connect with Jarius Wright more than a few times. Wright has 11 TDs this season and will surely add to them. Klein might get the Wildcats some yardage, and some rushing TDs, but over the course of the game he will not be able to keep up.
BETTING VERDICT
I'm going with Arkansas here as I can see them putting up a late score to pull further ahead than the touchdown.
I'm guessing that the Arkansas Razorbacks take this by 10 points in a high-scoring match.
The Pick :
Arkansas -7.5
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Arkansas -7.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
