NCAA Football
2011-12-29 - Washington Huskies at Baylor Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Thursday 29 December 2011 - Kick Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Robert Griffin III has improved his stock tremendously during the course of the season, so much so that he won the Heisman Trophy and is considered the QB to go number 2 in the NFL Draft. Griffin has yet to decide his future as he is eligible for one more season with the Baylor Bears (9-3), a team that has surprised many this year, but the theory goes that he will make himself available for the Draft.
Griffin has a great match up against the Washington Huskies (7-5) and could end his college career on a high. Washington have improved a lot from their winless campaign in 2008, but they have taken some heavy losses against the better teams they have played this year, and this is another game that could develop into a track meet for them.
The problem for the Huskies Defense is that RG3 makes very few mistakes, compiling a 36 TD passes season with just 6 Interceptions, and he should have plenty of success against the Huskies who have allowed over 280 yards per game through the air. Washington will get some pressure on RG3, but the QB has been so efficient that I expect he won't have too many issues moving the ball.
Terrance Ganaway will be helping keep Griffin in manageable situations as he has helped the Bears gain 4.9 yards per carry on the ground and I expect the back will be finding plenty of room as Washington looks to depend the pass. With all that going on, Baylor figures to score plenty of points and keep the chains moving throughout the 60 minutes.
Washington should be able to keep up for some time in this game through the play of Keith Price, who really has shone since taking over from Jake Locker, and has thrown 29 TDs to just 11 Interceptions this year. Baylor have allowed plenty of yards through the air this year, so I figure Price will have some success keeping the Huskies in touch with Griffin.
Chris Polk will get the carries from the backfield and he is another player that should have a big game here as he faces a Defense that gives up 5.2 yards per carry. Baylor have allowed just under 200 yards per game on the ground, so Polk should be able to keep the Offense in short and manageable situations as well as moving the chains.
Head to Head
Baylor are 7-4 against the spread this season, Washington are 7-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Baylor are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Washington are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 Bowl games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Baylor Bears to earn the cover for the following reasons:
First, this could easily develop into a track meet and I think that might put a little more pressure on Kevin Price to keep up as he doesn't have the experience in his first season.
Second, Baylor are less likely to make mistakes leading to turnovers and thus allowing the Bears to keep moving away.
Third, I think the Bears are going to put in a big performance for their star QB who could be playing his last game for them before moving to the NFL.
The Pick :
Baylor Bears 48-38 Washington Huskies
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Baylor Bears -9.5 Points @ 1.95
