NCAA Football
2011-12-29 - Notre Dame at Florida State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Thursday 29 December 2011 - Kick Off 5:30pm ET
10:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This looks like one of the premier games during this Bowl series as two schools with plenty of history are matched up with one another. The Florida State Seminoles (8-4) have had a slightly disappointing season considering they were ranked in the top 5 in pre-season, a 3 game losing run in the middle of the season putting their chances of a top BCS Bowl out of the question. The Seminoles finished 5-3 in ACC play this year.
They will face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) who have had a mixed season and perhaps should be ranked higher than they actually are. They finished the season with a defeat at Stanford, although there should be plenty of confidence in the team that won 8 of their last 10 games.
Both teams have very good Defensive Units that have set the team up for success this year. Notre Dame will look to shut down the running game as they have for much of this season and they should be successful in doing so as the Seminoles have struggled to 3.5 yards per carry on the year. That hasn't stopped Florida State scoring 20 TDs on the ground, but this is a big test for their running unit.
EJ Manuel has been running the Offense from behind Center, although he did miss a few games with an injury. He has thrown 16 TD passes and 8 Interceptions and he does figure to have some success throwing against this Secondary. Notre Dame have been susceptible to the big play in games this season, but they could put some real pressure on Manuel behind his struggling Offensive Line.
Florida State should be able to move the ball, but they have to give Manuel better protection and they will also need to find an effective running game from somewhere. The Offense had struggled down the stretch, particularly in the game against Florida to end the regular season, and they need to stay out of 3rd and long situations.
One aspect that has kept the Seminoles going is their under-rated Defensive unit. They have really limited teams on the ground all season and they have one of the best pass rushes in the League from the front 4.
Notre Dame have been running a balanced Offense, but they may struggle on the ground to match their season 5 yards per carry as the Seminoles are allowing just 2.4 yards per carry. Florida State have limited teams to under 85 yards per game on the ground and this could be a really tough time for the Fighting Irish to keep things going on the ground.
That means the pressure will be on Tommy Rees, who should return at QB after being benched in the last game. He has been protected fairly well by his Offensive Line as he has thrown 19 TD passes and 12 Interceptions this year, but could face a lot of pressure from the Seminoles front 4 if they are unable to run the ball and keep out of 3rd and long situations.
The Fighting Irish have one advantage through the play-making skills of Michael Floyd, one of the top WR prospects in the nation. Floyd has grabbed 8 TD passes from Rees this season and I expect he will be able to make some big plays to keep Notre Dame moving the chains forward.
Head to Head
Florida State hammered Notre Dame by 37 points in their last meeting in 2003, covering the spread for the first time in 5 games against the Fighting Irish.
Florida State are 6-6 against the spread this season, Notre Dame are 5-7.
Other Interesting Trends
Florida State are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games on a neutral site.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against non-Conference opponents.
Notre Dame are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the underdog.
However, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against non-Conference plays.
Prediction
I am going to back the Fighting Irish to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, both Defensive Units figure to have big games, while the Florida State Offense looked a little out of sorts at the back of the regular season.
Second, Florida State are missing some personnel on both sides of the ball due to arrests and missing academic pass marks and that could have an effect on the rest of the team.
Third, turnovers can be a killer (ask California in their loss to Texas), but this has all the makings of a close field goal kind of game.
Fourth, I think the struggles of the Florida State Offensive Line could be the key to the game as they may not give EJ Manuel the time to attack the Notre Dame Secondary, keeping the game close.
The Pick :
Florida State 20-17 Notre Dame
