NCAA Football
2011-12-28 - California at Texas Longhorns
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Wednesday 28 December 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Texas Longhorns (7-5) missed their first Bowl game for 12 years last season, but they are back in action in 2011. They finished 6th in the Big 12 after a very promising start and were only 4-5 in Conference play, and they lost 3 of their last 4 games coming into this one.
The California Golden Bears (7-5) finished with the same record as the Longhorns this season, and they were 4th in the Pac-12 North where they were 5-5 in Conference play. Unlike Texas though, the Golden Bears may have a little more confidence as they won 4 of their last 6 games to become eligible for a Bowl game.
California will feel they have a real chance of getting the upset in this game after pushing Stanford all the way in a 3 point loss on the road in the closing stages of the season. The whole key to their chances is whether Zach Maynard plays more like he has been recently than he did earlier this season.
Maynard has 17 TD passes and 11 Interceptions this season, but that ratio was 5 TD passes and 1 Interception during the closing 4 games of the season. This will be a real test for Maynard and the passing Offense that faces one of the toughest Defenses they would have seen all season. Texas have allowed just 211 yards per game through the air and they will cause problems for Maynard to keep the chains moving.
The QB may not have a lot of help from his running game as the Longhorns have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the year. Isi Sofele has carried the bulk of the load out of the backfield for the Golden Bears and he will look to make a statement in this game as he prepares for the next season. Sofele has 9 rushing TDs for the Golden Bears and has over 1250 yards on the ground.
While California could find themselves a little bogged down, Texas have really struggled to find a consistent Offensive game plan themselves. They will look to run the ball against this California Defense through Malcolm Brown, who is back from injury, although it won't be easy against a Defense that allows 3.8 yards per carry.
Somehow, Texas need to find an effective running game to help their young passing Offense find a rhythm. David Ash and Case McCoy are expected to share time behind Center, but they will have a tough time completing passes against this Secondary if the running game fails to find effective yards.
The Offensive Line has failed to protect whichever QB has been under Center, but a key for the QB will be not to turn the ball over and allow California to pull away with short fields. Texas are completing less than 60% of their passes and this game could be a one that is decided more by errors than big plays by either Offense.
Head to Head
Texas finished the season with a 6-6 record against the spread, California finished 7-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Texas are 7-15 against the spread in their last 22 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games against non-Conference opponents.
They are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games on a neutral site.
California are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against Big 12 opponents.
Prediction
I like the California Golden Bears to at least cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, this has all the hallmarks of a close game and both Defenses seems to have the measure of the Offense and, in that case, more than a field goal headstart seems a lot.
Second, Texas' Offense was making more mistakes than California's in the closing weeks of the season, while their running backs are still a little more banged up than the Golden Bears- that only means there will be more pressure on their QB to make big plays.
Third, I don't think Texas have played well enough all year to hold more than a field goal advantage against any team.
The Pick :
Texas Longhorns 20-17 California
