NFL Football
2011-12-24 - San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Two teams who are both fighting for Play Off berths in their respective Conferences meet one another in MoTown. The Detroit Lions (9-5) had a big comeback win last week over Oakland to put themselves 2 games up in the Wild Card race with just 2 games left of the season. They are not playing as well as they were when the season opened, but they look like they have done enough to make it back to the post-season for the first time in this Century.
It won't be easy to secure their place by themselves this week as they face a streaking San Diego Chargers (7-7) team that sits one game behind Denver in the race for the AFC West, although it does seem they have left their Play Off run a little late this season after losing 6 games in a row in the middle of the season. There is still an outside chance the Chargers can sneak into the Play Offs through the Wild Card berths, but they need Cincinnati and the New York Jets to lose their remaining games.
It is really frustrating watching San Diego play as they seem to have so much talent but underachieve. Norv Turner is unlikely to come back as Head Coach regardless of what happens in the remaining games this season, while Philip Rivers seems to have finally woken up from his season long slumber.
San Diego seem to hibernate early in the season and make a late run, but they may just have left it too late after blowing bad games against Kansas City and Denver in particular and there were all sorts of rumours that Philip Rivers may have been hiding an injury, but these questions are all gone since December ticked around.
Since December, Rivers has thrown 7 TD passes and no picks, while also gaining over 800 yards through the air. Before this period, Rivers actually had more Interceptions (17) than he did TD passes (16) and I am not quite sure what has changed. Malcolm Floyd returning to the starting line up has been big for Rivers and I think he, along with Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, should have plenty of success against a banged up Lions Secondary.
Ryan Mathews also showed his effectiveness last week against the Baltimore Ravens and he has a much better match up this week as the Lions have allowed 5.2 yards per carry on the year and been hammered for at least 100 yards on the ground in each of their last 3 games. With Mathews, along with Mike Tolbert, running the ball effectively, it will just give Rivers a chance to make plays from short and manageable situations and slowing up the Lions pass rush.
So will the Detroit Lions at least be able to keep up with the Chargers? The answer to this is they should be able to as Matt Stafford has a plethora of receivers that can make plays and keep the chains moving. The Chargers Secondary have not been as effective as in recent seasons, while they had been struggling to get a consistent pass rush together. The Lions Offensive Line has had a hard time protecting Stafford, but they could have an efficient running game slowing down the number of players San Diego send after Stafford.
Kevin Smith has turned back the clock since getting the call to take the bulk of the carries in the absence of Jahvid Best. Smith should have success against the Chargers who have allowed 4.4 yards per carry and he will keep the Defense honest enough that they have to respect the running game. That will also make it a little easier for Stafford to find Calvin Johnson, or Brandon Pettigrew and make plays through the air.
Head to Head
San Diego crushed Detroit by 37 points when they last met in 2007, winning the game when the 10 point favourites.
They also won on their last visit to Detroit in 2003 and have won 6 games in a row in the series.
San Diego have won the last 4 games against the spread against Detroit.
Detroit are 6-6-2 against the spread this season, San Diego are 5-9.
Other Interesting Trends
Detroit are 5-0-3 against the spread in their last 8 games as the favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.
San Diego are 18-8-3 against the spread in their last 29 games as the road underdog. They are 7-3-2 against the spread when considered the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in December.
Prediction
I am going to back the San Diego Chargers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Chargers have been on fire in the last 3 weeks as they forced themselves back into contention in the AFC West and the look like the team people expected them to be.
Second, Detroit have been a little fortunate of late with their wins both coming when they could easily have lost and they are just 2-6-1 against the spread in recent games.
Third, this game looks like it could boil down to a track meet with whoever has the ball last will win. Taking the points could be crucial to the final outcome.
Fourth, I think this game means a lot more to San Diego than it does for the Lions considering what their respective positions are right now and that desperation could see the Chargers getting the W outright.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Detroit Lions 27-31 San Diego Chargers
