NFL Football
2011-12-24 - Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a big game for the Denver Broncos (8-6) as they look to maintain their one game lead in the AFC West over San Diego and Oakland. With a Wild Card spot unlikely to reach a team that finishes 8-8, the Broncos need to win at least one of their last 2 games and then hope for other teams to falter. Denver were crushed by New England at home last week, although that was down to the turnovers they gave away.
They will be travelling to face the Buffalo Bills (5-9), a team that has really begun to mail it in for the season after a stunning start was destroyed by key injuries throughout the team. The Bills will do well to avoid finishing in the basement position of the AFC East after being swept by the Miami Dolphins this season.
As I said, injuries on both sides of the ball have really killed the momentum Buffalo picked up from their 4-1 start to the season. Their Offense is missing Fred Jackson, who was leading the rushing charts before being placed on Injured Reserve, although CJ Spiller had a big game for the Bills last week against Miami. Buffalo will find a chance to run the ball through Spiller as that is one of the weaker points of this Denver Defense, but it could still be a really tough day for Ryan Fitzpatrick.
After signing a big contract, Fitzpatrick has really fallen apart and may just have cost Buffalo a couple years in their building blocks if he doesn't get back to his early season form. Fitzpatrick has thrown 10 TD passes, but has turned over the ball 15 times through Interceptions and fumbles since Week 9. Denver's Secondary has played well in recent weeks, and will be boosted by a returning Brian Dawkins this week, while the Offensive Line is in for a long day as they look to keep Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller off Fitzpatrick long enough for the QB to make plays.
Kyle Williams has been another big injury for the Bills and they have struggled to stop the run since he went down. They have allowed 4.8 yards per carry this year and were torched by Reggie Bush for 200 yards when playing the Dolphins last week so I fully expect Denver's triple option to give them fits. Willis McGahee is back after leaving the New England game early, and he will surely have a big game against his former team and show them what they are missing.
We have all heard about Tim Tebow's struggles passing the ball, but he has looked impressive in games, no less than in the Chicago game when he threw for over 150 yards in the 4th Quarter to lead a furious comeback and eventual Overtime win. He should have a lot of time to pick apart the Buffalo Secondary that has allowed 230 yards per game through the air. With the running game working as efficiently as I think it will, Tebow will have chances to take advantage of one-on-one coverage for his receivers and should be able to make some plays.
Head to Head
Buffalo beat Denver when they last met in 2008, that game taking place in Denver and the Bills were 6 point underdogs.
Denver have actually won on their last 3 visits to Buffalo, although the Bills are 2-1 against the spread in those games.
Buffalo are 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Buffalo are 5-8-1 against the spread this season, Denver are 7-7.
Other Interesting Trends
Buffalo are 1-8-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as the underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 9-23-2 against the spread in their last 34 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Denver have won their last 5 games on the road against the spread.
They are 15-35-1 against the spread in their last 51 games as the favourite.
Prediction
I am going to back the Denver Broncos to come through and win this game while covering the spread and hopefully it will be a little easier than another 4th Quarter comeback. I like Denver for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo have not played well at all in recent weeks and I think there are a lot of players in that team that are looking forward to ending this season.
Second, Denver have been very strong on the road all year and they have been a playing a lot of inspirational football since Tim Tebow took over as the starter.
Third, the Broncos should be able to run the ball at will in this game and I expect them to control the clock, while the Defense should force a couple of turnovers from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fourth, Buffalo have really struggled to get up for games after playing the Miami Dolphins, going 4-24 against the spread in their next game since 1998.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Buffalo Bills 20-24 Denver Broncos
