NCAA Football
2011-12-21 - Louisiana Tech at TCU Horned Frogs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Wednesday 21 December 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It is quite hard to believe that two teams that won their Conferences will be pitched in a game against one another before Christmas, but tht is the situation in the Poinsettia Bowl from San Diego. The TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) would have expected more having beaten out Boise State in the MWC, while the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4) have exceeded expectations when winning the WAC.
Both teams come into the game on long winning runs to end the season and will feel a win in this Bowl game will at least propel them up the rankings for the new season. TCU have been familiar with Bowl games in recent seasons, although they had been involved in BCS Bowl games in the last two season, while the Bulldogs will be playing in their first Bowl game since 2008.
Louisiana Tech will face a tough test against this Horned Frogs Defense, one that hasn't reached the levels of previous seasons but one that is still very effective. Lennon Creer is the main running back for the Bulldogs and is expected back for this contest, although he is in line for a tough day against a TCU Defense that has only allowed 3.5 yards per carry on the ground. The Bulldogs have not run the ball that well all year, but they do not deviate away from their game plan which is to run the ball up to 40 times a contest and try to wear down defenses they face.
They will try to use the running game to keep Colby Cameron in short and manageable situations from behind Center. Cameron has thrown 11 TD passes and 2 Interceptions since taking over as QB for the Bulldogs and he should have some success against a Secondary that has not been as good as previous seasons. Louisiana Tech have had some issues at the Offensive Line position so they will look for the running game to negate any pass rush the Horned Frogs throw at Cameron.
I expect TCU will be able to move the ball themselves, although they could find their running game a little shut down by a tough Bulldogs Defense. The Horned Frogs are ranked at 20th in the nation in terms of yards gained on the ground per game and the will use Matthew Tucker to at least keep the Offense in short and manageable situations. However, it won't be easy as the Bulldogs have only allowed 3.4 yards per game on the ground this year.
There was expected to be a major drop-off for the TCU Offense since Andy Dalton moved into the NFL, but Casey Pachall has fitted in seamlessly and has thrown 24 TD passes with only 6 Interceptions. This game is sure to provide a big test for the first year QB as he faces a ball-hawking Defense that has picked up 20 Interceptions this year, enough for 3rd in the nation.
The Secondary does allow plenty of yards, but these turnovers have allowed them to stay close in games. They will also create plenty of problems in the backfield if they get TCU in obvious passing situations- the Bulldogs have averaged almost 3 sacks per game this season which places them at number 17 in the nation.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the schools.
TCU are 6-6 against the spread this season, Louisiana Tech are 10-2.
Other Interesting Trends
TCU are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They have lost their last 4 games against the spread when considered the favourite on a neutral site.
Louisiana Tech are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record.
They have won their last 5 games against the spread against non-Conference teams.
Prediction
I am going to back the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to cover the spread and keep this close for the following reasons:
First, I am not sure how high the motivation of the TCU players will be considering they have been used to the high-life and playing in BCS Bowls.
Second, Louisiana Tech can create turnovers and that could give them the opportunity to at least keep this game close even if they do not win outright.
Third, the Bulldogs have been a covering machine all season and may take advantage of any lacklustre performance from the Horned Frogs.
The Pick :
TCU Horned Frogs 31-27 Louisiana Tech
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + 9.5 Points @ 1.92
