NFL Football
2011-12-19 - Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Monday 19 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
I held off this game over the weekend as I wanted to see what kind of connotations the results on Sunday would have on this one... The win for New Orleans and the loss for Baltimore means both these teams will be desperate for the win. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) have a chance to earn control of the AFC North and could earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC if they win out.
The San Francisco 49ers (10-3) will also need to earn the win if they want to keep the Number 2 seed in the NFC and at least earn a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs. They need to win out to give themselves a chance of doing so as New Orleans don't look like they will drop a game with 2 home games left.
Pittsburgh have been holding back news on whether Ben Roethlisberger plays in this game and I honestly believe they were also waiting to see how Baltimore did when playing in San Diego. If the Ravens had won, they would likely have won the Division, but their loss has opened the door and I fully expect Roethlisberger to start.
He will be limited as his ankle injury has not had that long to heal since the win over Cleveland, and the Steelers are very much reliant on how he plays with this arm. They have a decent match up with this Secondary, although the 49ers have the best scoring Defense in the NFL, and I would have expected Big Ben to have some success if fully fit. In this case, I think he will have a tough game because his Offensive Line will not be able to protect him and he won't be able to scramble around making plays as he does usually.
That also means there will be more pressure on Rashad Mendenhall to find a running game against a Defense that has only allowed 3.2 yards per carry. I expect the Steelers will set up a number of quick slants and screen plays to try and get the ball moving and field position will be very important to them.
Think back to last season: Remember how well the Pittsburgh Defense played in the first 4 games of the season when Roethlisberger was suspended? I expect a similar performance from them tonight as they have a strong match up against the Offensively challenged 49ers.
Frank Gore has not been his usual self in recent games and there is a rumour that he is limited somewhat. Regardless, this does not present an easy match up for any back as the Steel Curtain has been very effective of late. They are limiting teams to under 100 yards per game this season and that will put more pressure on Alex Smith to keep the chains moving.
Smith has been efficient this season, throwing 15 TD passes and 5 Interceptions, but he has come off the boil in recent games and he is standing behind an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect him. Smith will be glad that James Harrison is suspended, but LaMarr Woodley is expected back as is Troy Polamalu, while the Offense Red Zone efficiency has been poor.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh beat San Francisco by 21 points when they last met in 2007, covering the 10 point spread at Heinze Field.
San Francisco are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games of the series, although they have dropped those 2 in the last 3 games.
San Francisco are 10-2-1 against the spread this season, Pittsburgh are 6-7.
Other Interesting Trends
San Francisco are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Pittsburgh are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Ben Roethlisberger is 11-7 against the spread when considered the road underdog.
Prediction
I really like the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot as the underdog for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers Defense will not allow the San Francisco 49ers to get away from them and it's nice getting these points in what looks like being a tight contest.
Second, the 49ers seemed to have hit a slight barrier of late and are not playing as well as they were a few weeks back.
Third, the 49ers have been forced to settle for a lot of FGs in games and that is not going to get the job done against the Steelers.
Fourth, we all saw how much the Defense stepped up without Big Ben last season and I think they will put in a similar level of performance as they know their QB is hurt and will want to keep the Steelers in the game to win.
I am a little concerned that Jim Harbaugh will be receiving a lot of advice from his brother, the Head Coach of Baltimore, but I just don't think the 49ers have enough talent to blow out the Steelers who will want to win this game desperately.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Francisco 49ers 13-16 Pittsburgh Steelers
