NFL Football
2011-12-18 - Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Sunday 18 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This game will have a big implication for the NFC Wild Card spots as the Seattle Seahawks (6-7) visit the banged up and slumping Chicago Bears (7-6). Both teams are looking in from the outside at the Wild Card places at the moment, although Seattle can at least believe they have some momentum taking them the right way.
The Bears had an absolute nightmare last week in Denver when they allowed Tim Tebow to level the game from a 10 point deficit and 3 minutes remaining on the clock. Marion Barber could have iced the game for the Bears but inexplicably ran out of bounds with less than 2 minutes on the clock and the Broncos out of time outs. The same player then fumbled the ball in OT and allowed the Broncos to drive up the field and score the game winning FG.
That loss leaves them in a very tough position to get into the Wild Card spots as the absence of Jay Cutler and Matt Forte have destroyed their Offensive powers. Caleb Hanie has proved not to be an effective player at this level in relief of Cutler and the Bears have struggled, scoring just 33 points in their last 3 games without Cutler, and just 13 since Forte was missing.
Chicago will once again rely on Marion Barber to run the football and he should have some success against a Seattle Defense that has been stout against the run for the most part of the season, but has been struggling a little of late. While Barber will help keep the team in short and manageable situations, it will still mean Hanie has to make some plays with his arms to keep things going.
Hanie has thrown 2 TD passes and 6 Interceptions in his 3 games this season, but he has clearly been out of his depth at this level. A lot of fans expected the Hanie that performed well in the NFC Championship Game last season, but he has had a hard time and will be faced with a Seattle Secondary that has been playing at a decent level of late. The Corners are very tall and that gives them the chance to break up more plays, so Hanie can't just throw balls up either as they are likely to be Intercepted.
Seattle will also look for their running back, Marshawn Lynch, to take the bulk of the Offense on his shoulders. Lynch is out of contract soon, but has been in unbelievable form over the last few weeks- he has run for an NFL best 706 yards since Week 9 and he has scored at least 1 TD in his last 9 games for Seattle.
Lynch has been breaking tackles and he could have a good day again, although the Bears did keep the Broncos Offense very quiet for 3 and a half Quarters last week. Overall their play against the run has not been typical Chicago, but the last few weeks they have shut down all running attacks and this will be a tough day for Lynch to continue his good run.
That means Seattle will look at Tavaris Jackson to move the chains with his arm against a Secondary that has not been up to the level of Chicago Defenses in recent seasons. However, it could be tough for him without an effective running game as Seattle's Offensive Line has struggled and Chicago can generate a pass rush to get after Jackson. The QB has been showing better form of late, but this is the toughest Defense he would have faced.
Head to Head
These teams met in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs last season with Chicago winning by 11 points here and covered the spread as the favourites.
Seattle had actually beaten Chicago earlier in the regular season, winning the game outright as the 6 point underdog.
The Seahawks are 2-1 against the spread in their last 3 visits to Chicago.
Chicago are 7-6 against the spread this season, Seattle are 8-4-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Chicago are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Seattle are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points. They are just 3-22-1 against the spread in their last 26 games following a straight up win by double-digits.
Prediction
I am going to take the underdog to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, Caleb Hanie has been really bad at QB so far in his 3 starts and I don't think he deserves to be favoured over any team by more than a FG.
Second, Seattle had a big win on Monday Night Football and teams winning by 17 or more points on MNF are 43-23 against the spread in their next game.
Third, teams that lose in OT are 28-60 against the spread in their next game as long as they are not the road underdogs in that game.
Fourth, this could be a low-scoring game and one that could easily be settled by 3 points either way so the extra 0.5 point for Seattle looks a little too good to pass up.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chicago Bears 13-10 Seattle Seahawks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Seattle Seahawks +3.5 Points @ 2.00
