New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings Betting pick | 2011-12-18

NFL Football

2011-12-18 - New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Sunday 18 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The New Orleans Saints (10-3) do not have to play another regular season outdoors, and they will look to run the table to ensure they pick up a bye in the first round of the Play Offs and then get a chance to host one game in the Divisional Round. They travel to meet the Minnesota Vikings (2-11) who are coming off a tough loss at Divisional rivals the Detroit Lions.

The Saints are clearly a much different team indoors as their Offense can begin to put up a huge number of points. They have won every game in their own dome this season, yet are just 4-3 on the road, including an absolute stinker of a result when losing to the St Louis Rams.

Drew Brees is definitely one of the elite QBs in the NFL and he, like Aaron Rodgers at Green Bay, has a huge number of weapons at his disposal. Jimmy Graham has been a real match up problem for opposition Defenses, while the likes of Lance Moore and Marques Colston continue catching balls. I expect Brees will have a big game against a banged up Minnesota Secondary, although he will have to be aware of the pass rush that the Vikings have generated all year, particularly through the efforts of Jared Allen.

I expect the Saints will use Darren Sproles to try and negate that pass rush by having him set up for screens and little pitches. Minnesota have been solid against the run as usual, but this Offense presents a number of match up problems for them.

While the Saints are moving the ball effectively, I think the Vikings will have a great chance to keep the chains moving themselves and could do so by keeping Brees and the Saints Offense off the field for long periods. Adrian Peterson is expected to return this week and he has a great match up against a Defense that has allowed over 5 yards a carry this year. Peterson, or Toby Gerhart, should at least keep the Vikings ticking over and give their young QB a chance.

Christian Ponder had to come out of the game against Detroit last week as he had an injury and was playing really badly. Ponder turned the ball over too many times last week and has now thrown 5 Interceptions and lost 2 fumbles in the last 2 games. Joe Webb came in for Ponder last week, but the rookie remains the starter in this game.

With Peterson running the ball in an effective manner, it should give Ponder a chance to get things going through the air against a porous Saints Secondary. The problem will be the Offensive Line that has really struggled all year, so Ponder will need to avoid obvious passing situations if he wants to stop the Saints breaking into the backfield and coming after him.

Head to Head

The most famous recent meeting between the teams came in the NFC Championship Game in 2009, a game the Saints won by 3 points in OT.

New Orleans have won the last 2 games straight up between the teams, but they are just 1-5 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.

This is the first time they have met in Minnesota since 2005, a game the Vikings won by 17 points.

Minnesota are 5-6-2 against the spread this season, New Orleans are 9-4.

Other Interesting Trends

Minnesota are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 3-10-2 against the spread in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record.

New Orleans are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have won their last 4 games against the spread against teams from the NFC.

Prediction

I am going to back the New Orleans Saints to win and cover for the following reasons:

First, this game is played inside a dome and that should benefit the explosive Offense the Saints have.

Second, Christian Ponder is making a lot of mistakes for the Vikings in recent games and that could be the difference between keeping close and losing comfortably.

Third, New Orleans should be fully focused on the game knowing they could steal the Number 2 seed if they win out, while the Vikings are coming off a tough emotional loss to the Lions and may not be able to 'get up' for this game.

The Statistics :

MINNESOTA VIKINGS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-04	L	32-35	H v Denver Broncos
	2011-11-20	L	21-27	H v Oakland Raiders
	2011-10-23	L	27-33	H v Green Bay Packers
	2011-10-09	W	34-10	H v Arizona Cardinals
	2011-09-25	L	23-26	H v Detroit Lions
	2011-09-18	L	20-24	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-11	W	17-22	A v Tennessee Titans
	2011-11-13	W	23-26	A v Atlanta Falcons
	2011-10-30	L	31-21	A v St. Louis Rams
	2011-10-16	L	26-20	A v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2011-10-09	W	27-30	A v Carolina Panthers
	2011-10-02	W	10-23	A v Jacksonville Jaguars

HEAD TO HEAD MINNESOTA VIKINGS v NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2005-09-25	Minnesota Vikings	33-16	New Orleans Saints
2001-01-06	Minnesota Vikings	34-16	New Orleans Saints
1998-11-08	Minnesota Vikings	31-24	New Orleans Saints
1995-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	43-24	New Orleans Saints
1994-11-06	Minnesota Vikings	21-20	New Orleans Saints
1993-11-28	Minnesota Vikings	14-17	New Orleans Saints