NFL Football
2011-12-18 - Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Sunday 18 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
After handing out a big beat-down to the Oakland Raiders, the Green Bay Packers (13-0) are now considered the favourites to complete a regular season unbeaten and perhaps are in line to do the same feat as the 1972 Miami Dolphins of going an entire season unbeaten. This is considered the easiest of their last 3 games as the face the Kansas City Chiefs (5-8).
The Chiefs have had a bunch of injuries on both sides of the ball that have ended their chances of retaining their AFC West title and making it back to the Play Offs. The poor season cost Todd Haley his job during the week and you can imagine this team is looking forward to the offseason already.
As with any Green Bay preview at the moment, there really isn't a lot you can say for this team that is playing fantastic football and has been all year. They have completed a year unbeaten and Aaron Rodgers is going to put up his usual numbers in this game. Greg Jennings is missing until the Play Offs, but there are so many options in the receiving corps that I expect little drop off in production.
The Chiefs do have a good Secondary, but they don't get enough pressure to disrupt Rodgers and I think he will find a way to keep the chains moving as he has all season. Ryan Grant will also be able to run the ball against a Defense that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry since their bye week in Week 6.
With the Packers doing what they do, they will put up between 24-34 points in this game and the question then becomes whether Kansas City can keep up, this time with Kyle Orton back from injury to take over as the starter for the Chiefs. Orton will be making his first start of the his Chiefs career since signing from the Denver Broncos.
Orton had success against this Secondary when playing for Denver earlier this year, but the Packers are definitely playing better than they were then and the Chiefs don't have the running game Denver have to keep the Packers Defense honest.
I expect Orton will be able to help the Chiefs move the chains a little in this game as he does have a huge play-making receiver in the form of Dwayne Bowe, but I expect it won't be easy to do this with any consistency, while Green Bay have a very effective pass rush that can get to the QB and cause disruption in the backfield and ball-hawking CBs that will create turnovers.
Usually teams will try to run the ball against this Defense to keep Rodgers on the sidelines, but the absence of Jamaal Charles has hurt Kansas City all season and the Packers have played the run effectively enough to force teams into obvious passing situations.
Head to Head
These teams last met one another in 2007, with the Packers winning by 11 points as the 1 point underdog.
Kansas City had won 5 games in a row in the series before that defeat, both straight up and against the spread.
Kansas City are 7-6 against the spread this season, Green Bay are 9-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Kansas City are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Green Bay are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 20-7 against the spread in their last 27 games overall.
Prediction
I am going to back the Green Bay Packers to continue on their march to an unbeaten season with a convincing win for the following reasons:
First, Kansas City QB Kyle Orton cannot be at 100% after suffering a dislocated finger a couple of weeks ago and there are doubts that he will even start despite being announced as the Number 1... That will mean a rookie coming in against a turnover creating Defense.
Second, Green Bay are scoring points for fun and it is going to be tough for the Chiefs to keep up with them here.
Third, teams who have fired their coach are 0-6 against the spread in their next game as the home underdog.
Fourth, it is the Chiefs Defense that has kept them in games over the last few weeks, but they had a real letdown last week and will find it tough to cover all of the Packers' weapons.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Kansas City Chiefs 17-34 Green Bay Packers
