Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons Betting pick | 2011-12-15

NFL Football

2011-12-15 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Thursday 15 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Atlanta Falcons (8-5) put a sloppy first half behind them last week before overcoming the Carolina Panthers to stay in touch with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and also controlling their own destiny in the Wild Card race. They will be expecting to put the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) to the sword, even though the Jags are coming off by far their biggest Offensive production of the season in a win over Tampa Bay last week.

Thursday nights have proven a tough time for the visitors over the last few seasons as the short week does not help their preparation for the game. This shouldn't be as big an issue as some games because Jacksonville is not too far from Atlanta, although there is still a strong case for thinking the Jaguars will struggle.

They may have scored 41 points last week, but Jacksonville have really struggled to consistently put up points on the board. It is going to be especially tough for them this week as Maurice Jones-Drew has a tough matchup against this Atlanta Defense. The unit is only giving up 3.9 yards per carry on the year and look set to stifle the Jaguars running game which could make it hard for the team to score enough points in this one.

Blaine Gabbert has really struggled to make the right read against Defenses all year and he could find himself in plenty of 3rd and long situations which will not be a good place to be considering how much the Offensive Line has struggled to protect him for the most part. Atlanta have 9 sacks in their last 3 games and will not hesitate in sending John Abraham and Ray Edwards after Gabbert when it is an obvious passing situation.

All of this means it could be tough for the Jaguars to even come close to scoring half as many as they did last week.

Atlanta, on the other hand, should not have too many problems moving the ball against a banged up Jaguars Defense. Matt Ryan had a tough first half last week, but really got things going in the second and he faces a team that has lost a huge amount of key players in the Secondary and may just struggle against Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jacksonville will have a couple of rookies in the Secondary and this is a great match up for the Falcons Offense.

Michael Turner should also be able to help Ryan by running the ball effectively- Jacksonville had played the run pretty well on the year, but they have allowed 4.5 yards per carry in the last 7 weeks and that could mean the Falcons Offense is left in short and manageable situations where they can exploit the Secondary off play-action. Running the ball effectively will also mean the Jaguars are susceptible for a big play over the top of the Defense.

Head to Head

Jacksonville have won 3 of the 4 meetings between the teams although the last of these was back in 2007 in Florida.

Atlanta are actually 3-1 against the spread in those games.

Both teams are 5-7-1 against the spread this season.

Other Interesting Trends

Atlanta are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite giving up 10.5 points or more.

Jacksonville are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

They are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog.

The Jaguars are 13-26 against the spread in their last 39 games against non-Divisional opponents.

Prediction

I do really like the Atlanta Falcons to come through and win this game while covering the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Falcons have a fantastic record at home since Matt Ryan took over as the starter and they could make it tough for the Jaguars to keep up in a shoot out.

Second, Maurice Jones-Drew is the best player on this Jacksonville team and his impact may be limited thanks to a tough Atlanta run Defense.

Third, the Jaguars are coming in off a short week and this is always tough on teams on limited preparation. Additionally, Jacksonville will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days and fatigue may become an issue.

The Statistics :

ATLANTA FALCONS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-27	W	24-14	H v Minnesota Vikings
	2011-11-20	W	23-17	H v Tennessee Titans
	2011-11-13	L	23-26	H v New Orleans Saints
	2011-10-16	W	31-17	H v Carolina Panthers
	2011-10-09	L	14-25	H v Green Bay Packers
	2011-09-18	W	35-31	H v Philadelphia Eagles

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-20	L	14-10	A v Cleveland Browns
	2011-11-13	W	3-17	A v Indianapolis Colts
	2011-10-30	L	24-14	A v Houston Texans
	2011-10-16	L	17-13	A v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2011-09-25	L	16-10	A v Carolina Panthers
	2011-09-18	L	32-3	A v New York Jets