NFL Football
2011-12-11 - New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 14
Sunday 11 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is an absolute huge game in terms of the NFC East and has so many Play Off implications for both teams- I, for one, am very glad to know this is the prime time game of the week. The Dallas Cowboys (7-5) hold a 1 game lead over the New York Giants (6-6) and could put themselves in an imperious position in the East with a win, but the Giants will feel confident in travelling to Cowboys Stadium.
Last week, the Giants became the team closest to beating the unbeaten Green Bay Packers this season and there were so many similar elements to their loss to the then unbeaten New England Patriots in 2007- that was also the year the Giants managed to sneak into the Play Offs and defeat the same Patriots in the SuperBowl.
Even in a loss, the Giants must have gained confidence that they can play against the very best teams in the NFL and they should be ready for this game. They play a Dallas team that is not firing on all cylinders and lost in a bad way at Arizona last week. They had close wins over Washington and Miami before that loss last week and there has to be some doubts considering failures in December in previous seasons.
The Dallas Offensive Line did not have a good day against Arizona last week and they now face one of the sack happy teams in the NFL. Tony Romo should have some success against the Secondary if he is given time in the pocket, but he will be under pressure all day if the Cowboys cannot establish themselves on the ground.
That should not be a huge issue this week as they face a Giants team that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry this year and I do expect DeMarco Murray to get back into a groove after his first really poor outing at Arizona. Unless the Cowboys make some serious mistakes, as they did last week, they should be able to score points on the Defense without a lot of issues.
While the Cowboys should be able to score, I expect the Giants to turn this into a track meet. Eli Manning has had a very effective season and he has a lot of weapons in his receiving corps to keep things ticking along. Hakeem Nicks, Jake Ballard and Mario Manningham have all had big catches, but it is the announcement of Victor Cruz that has really got the Offense going. Even with a porous Offensive Line, Manning has been able to keep 'Big Blue' moving the chains and avoided the mistakes that has blighted him in his career.
The pressure has really been on Manning to make plays with his arm as the running game has been very very poor. Brandon Jacobs shows flashes of his ability, but too often the Giants have failed to make hay as shown by their 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Ahmad Bradshaw is at least back and he may have some more success as the Cowboys have not played the run very well in recent weeks (ever since the Philadelphia game in fact)- if the Giants can get ANYTHING going on the ground, it will make Manning's life so much easier to hit his downfield threats.
Head to Head
Dallas beat the Giants in New York in their last meeting, winning outright as the 11.5 point underdogs.
That means the underdog have actually won the last 4 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread, including the Giants winning twice at this Stadium since it was opened.
The Giants are 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Dallas are 4-7-1 against the spread this season, New York are 5-6-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Dallas are just 3-13-1 against the spread in their last 17 games as the favourite.
They are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
New York are 17-8 against the spread in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I really like the New York Giants with the extra points for the following reasons:
First, the Giants played a great game against the Packers last week, one that reminded of the game against New England in 2007 that inspired them to go all the way to the SuperBowl... While they might not get that far this year, I think they will be inspired to win the NFC East and I expect a big performance today.
Second, Dallas have not been playing that great in recent games and have been doing just enough to win games.
Third, the Giants are 2-0 straight up in this Stadium since it opened, and have covered the spread as the underdog in both games.
Fourth, teams that lost in OT in their last game are just 28-60 against the spread in their next game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Dallas Cowboys 30-31 New York Giants
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the New York Giants +4.5 Points @ 2.00
