NFL Football
2011-12-11 - Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 14
Sunday 11 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is coming close to make or break for the Atlanta Falcons (7-5) after they laid an egg in their loss to the Houston Texans last week and fell 2 games behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South with only 4 weeks left of the regular season. They cannot afford another Divisional loss this week as that could effectively leave them scrapping for a Wild Card berth in January.
They face a Carolina Panthers (4-8) team that are perhaps better than their record suggests and have been revitalised by Cam Newton since taking him as the Number 1 Draft choice last April. They ride a 2 game winning run coming into this one and would dearly love to knock a Divisional rival off stride in their Play Off push.
I have no doubt the Panthers will enjoy some success on the Offensive side of the ball if Cam Newton can limit the mistakes he has made like he has in the last couple of games. The Falcons are a tough team to run against, but Carolina are going at 5 yards per carry and they do have the luxury of a mobile QB that can make plays with his legs.
But don't think Newton is just a player that can run with the ball- he has shown some real ability, to the surprise of many who watched him before the Draft last season, to throw the ball around with touch and strength. Newton should have success moving the chains against this Secondary, although he will need some help from his Offensive Line that has struggled this year. They face John Abraham and Ray Edwards who can get in the backfield and cause plenty of havoc.
As I mentioned, the Falcons laid an egg in Houston last week, but the Texans do have a very good Defensive unit playing at the top of the game... The Panthers do not have that luxury this week. I expect Michael Turner to have a big game today against a Defensive unit that has struggled to stop the run all year and that is going to open things up for Matt Ryan to bounce back from a poor game last week.
Ryan really struggled against the Texans Defensive unit that has performed brilliantly under the guidance of Wade Phillips this season, but he should be good enough this week with Turner getting chunks of yardage on the ground. The Panthers pass rush will be negated if Ryan is in short and manageable situations while the play-action will also be available and that should allow Julius Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to make significant plays.
Head to Head
Atlanta are coming into this one on the back of a 3 game winning run against Carolina, scoring 31 points in each of those games, and they have covered the spread in each of those victories.
Carolina lost their last home game against Atlanta but had won the previous 2 between the teams here.
The Falcons are 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
Carolina are 7-5 against the spread this season, Atlanta are 4-7-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Carolina are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.
Atlanta are 18-6 against the spread in their last 24 games following a straight up loss. They have won their last 5 against the spread when coming in off a loss as the favourite.
They are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games against a team with a losing record.
Prediction
I am going to back this game to finish with more than 47 total points. Both teams can score points against the other, while turnovers will see short fields.
Atlanta have got up to 31 points in the last 3 meetings against the Panthers, while both Defenses are susceptible to the big play.
With the way things are expected to go in this game, I can see both teams getting above the 20 point mark and it looks like a game that can get the scoring going a little higher.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Carolina Panthers 24-27 Atlanta Falcons
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 47 Total Points @ 1.92
