NFL Football
2011-12-11 - Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 14
Sunday 11 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Rex Ryan has made it clear to his troops- the New York Jets (7-5) cannot afford to lose to another AFC team if they are going to find a way to get into the Play Offs this year. The chances of them catching the New England Patriots are slim to none, while even a Wild Card spot will need them to run the table and hope for a couple of slip ups from their rivals.
The Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) roll into town knowing they are still in with a small chance of winning the AFC West as they trail the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders by a couple of games, but they have so many key injuries that is unlikely that they will be able to make the move this year.
Tyler Palko will continue as the starter for the Chiefs in this game as Kyle Orton dislocated his finger in his one appearance so far for Kansas City and he is listed as doubtful for this game. Palko has really struggled to make the reads required at this level and he faces a Jets Defense that will be able to shut down the passing game. The Offensive Line has struggled all year so Palko will be in trouble if the Chiefs cannot get the ball moving on the ground.
However, I expect Kansas City to have some success on the ground, although they will be using a committee to get things moving. The loss of Jamaal Charles has really hurt their backfield all year, but the Jets can be up and down against the run and so we could see the Chiefs having some success.
If Kansas City are to win this game, they will need the Defense to continue playing at the level they have been in the last couple of weeks as they allowed just 16 points combined to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chicago Bears. The Jets have got back to their 'ground and pound' Offense, using Shonn Greene to move the chains and keep the team in short and manageable situations. He should have some success doing that this week as the Chiefs are inconsistent stopping the run and that could be key to the game.
Mark Sanchez will be hoping Greene gets things going, if only to negate the vicious pass rush the Chiefs can generate. The Jets Offensive Line has struggled this year, especially when Sanchez wants his receivers to run longer routes and that will be a problem if they are in 3rd and long situations. The Chiefs also have an effective cornerback tandem that should have success against the Jets receivers and this could be a tough game for New York if they are not fully focused.
Head to Head
The teams last met in 2008 in New York, with the Jets winning by 4 points in a game where they were favoured by 14 points.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in the last 4 meetings between the teams going back to 2002.
New York are 5-7 against the spread this season, Kansas City are 7-5.
Other Interesting Trends
New York are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
Kansas City are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
Prediction
I am going to back the Kansas City Chiefs in this game for the following reasons:
First, this is a big spread and New York are not really the type of team that will blow teams out. They have a great Defense, but an average Offense.
Second, Kansas City's Defense are really playing well in the last couple of weeks and they could at least slow up the Offense enough to keep within a very big spread.
Third, when I expect a low scoring game, 10.5 points is a lot to overcome.
Fourth, the Jets just want to win, they will milk the clock if they are up by 7 late and will not look for a TD to finish the game but a FG to ice it and will play preventative defense that may allow a back-door cover.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New York Jets 20-10 Kansas City Chiefs
