New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans Betting pick | 2011-12-11

NFL Football

2011-12-11 - New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
United States: NFL Football Week 14
Sunday 11 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

Both teams are in a big spot here as we race towards the end of the season and neither will really want to drop a game right here. The New Orleans Saints (9-3) have a two game lead in the NFC South over the Atlanta Falcons, but will also be well aware that they could still finish as one of the top 2 seeds in the NFC and earn at least one game in the sanctuary of their Dome in Louisiana.

The Tennessee Titans (7-5) will know this game is as important for themselves as they are only two games behind the Houston Texans in the AFC South, while also still in the mix to earn a Wild Card spot in the Play Offs. A defeat here for the Titans, coupled with a Houston win will effectively end their chances of winning the Division and also make it tough to reach the Play Offs from other avenues.

Both teams will also come in off wins and there should be confidence that both can achieve what they want.

The Titans will be much happier seeing Chris Johnson finally playing like a player that deserves the huge amount of money he was given before the season began. Johnson will expect to add to the huge amount of yards he has gained in the last couple of weeks as the Saints have allowed 4.9 yards per carry this year and have struggled to stop the run.

With Johnson likely to get things moving on the ground, Matt Hasselbeck could find himself in a very good position of short and manageable yards which will allow him to take advantage of a Secondary that has allowed huge passing yards in recent games. The last 4 QBs the Saints have faced have all reached at least 280 yards through the air and it does look like Tennessee will be able to make the plays to move the chains.

However, if there is one Offense that can keep up in a track meet, it is the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees has looked really good in the last couple of games, exposing Defenses with his huge number of weapons and the Saints have been on fire. The Titans have allowed 233 yards per game through the air this year, but they will look to get pressure on Brees with their pass rush. However, they have not turned the ball over enough and I expect the Saints will get things going through the air.

The key for the Saints will be to get their running game going, even if it is through the little screens and laterals they like to play. While the Titans will look to stop the various receivers, Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram will look to get it going on the ground and slow up any pass rush generated by the Titans. All in all, they should be able to do something as the Titans allow 4.2 yards per carry and that should be good enough to keep the Saints ticking the scoreboard over.

Head to Head

The Tennessee Titans have won the last 4 games in the series between the teams, the last of those coming in New Orleans in 2007.

Tennessee are 3-0-1 against the spread in those games.

Tennessee are 7-5 against the spread this season, New Orleans are 8-4.

Other Interesting Trends

Tennessee have won the last 5 games against the spread as the home underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home underdog.

New Orleans are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 games against a team with winning record.

Prediction

This is actually a really close game to predict, but I think the Saints are going to be just too strong and pull the win for the following reasons:

First, the Saints have so many Offensive weapons and could take away the rushing game of the Titans if they can build a big lead early- they are more than capable of doing that.

Second, New Orleans are 3-0 against teams from the AFC this season and this is still an important game with the chance to sneak into the top 2 seeded positions in the NFC. A defeat ends those chances.

Third, Tennessee have been playing well in recent games, but this is the best team they have faced for a while and they have been beaten b Cincinnati and Houston here.

There are a couple of trends that really support the Tennessee Titans in this one: One of those is that road favourites coming off back to back wins at home as the favourite are just 13-41 against the spread.

The Statistics :

TENNESSEE TITANS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-27	W	23-17	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2011-11-06	L	17-24	H v Cincinnati Bengals
	2011-10-30	W	27-10	H v Indianapolis Colts
	2011-10-23	L	7-41	H v Houston Texans
	2011-09-25	W	17-14	H v Denver Broncos
	2011-09-18	W	26-13	H v Baltimore Ravens

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-13	W	23-26	A v Atlanta Falcons
	2011-10-30	L	31-21	A v St. Louis Rams
	2011-10-16	L	26-20	A v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2011-10-09	W	27-30	A v Carolina Panthers
	2011-10-02	W	10-23	A v Jacksonville Jaguars
	2011-09-08	L	42-34	A v Green Bay Packers

HEAD TO HEAD TENNESSEE TITANS v NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2003-09-21	Tennessee Titans	27-12	New Orleans Saints
1990-10-21	Tennessee Titans	23-10	New Orleans Saints
1984-09-30	Tennessee Titans	10-27	New Orleans Saints