NFL Football
2011-12-11 - New England Patriots at Washington Redskins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 14
Sunday 11 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The New England Patriots (9-3) are in control of the AFC East and their remaining schedule dictates that they are not just expected to clinch the Division, but they are widely tipped to finish as one of the top 2 seeds in the Conference and perhaps even secure home-field advantage through the Play Offs. They face a Washington Redskins (4-8) team that is winding down the season and missing some big players this week.
The Patriots did just enough last week to dispose of the Indianapolis Colts, going into the final Quarter with a 31-3 lead and effectively sealing the win. They should be relaxed as they make the relatively short trip down the coast to FedEx Field, especially considering the Redskins have just come off a disappointing loss to the New York Jets here.
Washington have not had a great season after expectations were raised with a 3-1 start to the year and they continue to change their QB meaning there is no consistency in the team. To make matters worse this week, the NFL have suspended Fred Davis and Trent Williams for the rest of the season after they were found guilty of using illegal substances.
That will give Rex Grossman some problems as he is missing one of his best targets and the Offensive Line, which has struggled all year anyway, will be missing their best Lineman. Even though the Patriots Secondary is one of the worst in the League, it will be tough for Grossman to expose it in this situation and I expect the Patriots will be able to get some pressure in the backfield and perhaps force 'Bad Rex' to make some errant throws.
Grossman will really need Roy Helu to continue his recent surge running the ball. Helu played well against the Jets last week and will get the bulk of the carries in this contest- however, the Redskins have struggled to run the ball with consistency all year and the Patriots may just load the box a little bit more knowing the biggest danger in the passing game is Santana Moss now Davis is out.
New England should not have too much trouble getting the scoreboard moving, even though Washington are a better Defense than people may initially think. Tom Brady has a lot of weapons at his disposal while the two Tight Ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, pose massive match up problems for the Defense. One area where Washington will expect to show up is with their pass rush that has 33 sacks this year, although the Pats have improved their pass protection in the last few weeks.
Ben-Jarvus Green Ellis should be able to run the ball against the Defense too, making it a little bit easier for Brady to have a go at the Secondary and I think New England will be able to get things going.
Head to Head
These two teams last met in the 2007 season when the Patriots were accused of running up the score on the hapless Redskins in a 52-7 home win. The Pats were in the midst of their unbeaten regular season and had been set as the 15 point favourites in that game.
They haven't met in the Capital since 2003 when Washington beat New England by 3 points in a game they were favoured to win by 3.
Washington are 5-7 against the spread this season, New England are 7-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Washington are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the underdog.
They are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
New England are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record.
Prediction
I am going to back the New England Patriots to cover the biggish spread for the following reasons:
First, New England should be able to move the chains with consistency and I expect them to keep the scoreboard ticking over.
Second, Washington are missing a couple of big pieces in their Offense which could make it tough for Rex Grossman who could be under pressure from the Defense all day.
Third, the Patriots will not want to struggle against a team that was put away by the New York Jets by double-digits here last week.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Washington Redskins 17-30 New England Patriot
