NFL Football
2011-12-08 - Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 14
Thursday 8 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The season is winding down to a conclusion and the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) look set to at least return to the Play Offs, although they will still feel they can win the AFC North despite a couple of losses to the Baltimore Ravens. Heinze Field will be the venue for this Thursday night clash as they host the Cleveland Browns (4-8), a team that is struggling again this year.
Cleveland were beaten comfortably in their last game on Sunday by the Baltimore Ravens, but can at least take solace in the fact they can ruin Pittsburgh's season as they meet twice in the next 4 weeks. However, they have lost 5 of their last 6 games coming into this one and the Offense is really struggling of late. The Browns have scored 20 points just once in their last 10 games and they have only scored more than 14 points once in their last 7 games.
It doesn't get any easier for the Offense this week as they face a Pittsburgh Defense that is beginning to earn more turnovers and are fresh off shutting down the Cincinnati Bengals. Peyton Hillis will be in the line up for the Browns, but the Offensive Line has struggled to open up the running lanes all year and Hillis himself is not at 100%. The Steelers are only allowing 4 yards per carry this year and should be able to keep Colt McCoy in 3rd and long situations.
And that will not bode well for McCoy- the Offensive Line has struggled to give him time in the pocket to find his receivers and they will be met with a fierce pass rush generated by the likes of James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. The Steelers do not allow teams to pass on them through the air and it looks like being another long night for McCoy and the Browns.
I can see Rashad Mendenhall having a big game for Pittsburgh if Cleveland play the rush as they did on Sunday when Ray Rice gained over 200 yards on the ground. Pittsburgh have not been as effective at running the ball as they have been in previous seasons, but Mendenhall played well against the Bengals on Sunday and should be able to get things going against a Defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry on the year.
That will only make life easier for Ben Roethlisberger, although he is going up against a decent pass Defense. Baltimore were so effective on the ground on Sunday that Joe Flacco didn't need to air the ball out, but Pittsburgh are more likely to take the aerial route. The Steelers average over 250 yards per game through the air and Roethlisberger should be given enough protection from his Offensive Line as he will be in short and manageable situations thanks to the running game.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh have won 14 of the last 15 games in the series between the two teams, and they have won the last 3 at Heinze Field by an average of 20 points per game.
Pittsburgh are 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series played at Heinze Field.
The favourite is 9-4-1 against the spread in the last 14 games in the series.
Pittsburgh are 6-6 against the spread this season, Cleveland are 3-7-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Pittsburgh are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams from the AFC North.
They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite.
However, the Steelers are just 6-16 against the spread in their last 22 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.
Cleveland are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games as the underdog.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Browns are 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I like the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot for the following reasons:
First, Cleveland's Colt McCoy is banged up and the Offense is stuttering as a whole and they face a tough Defense to score on.
Second, Cleveland are coming into this one on a short week and that can be tough for preparation purposes.
Third, Pittsburgh should be fully focused to keep the pressure on Baltimore by taking the lead in the Division and they have comfortably dispatched Cleveland the last 3 times they have met here.
This is still a big spread so I wouldn't take it as a given that the Steelers cover, but I do like their chances considering Cleveland's struggles to score points and the fact they are banged up.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Pittsburgh Steelers 31-10 Cleveland Browns
