Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints Betting pick | 2011-12-04

NFL Football

2011-12-04 - Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
United States: NFL Football Week 13
Sunday 4 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The NFC Play Off picture is getting interesting and this game could have serious consequences in the long-term as both teams could potentially be fighting out for a Wild Card spot. The Detroit Lions (7-4) are 4 games behind the Green Bay Packers as it looks like the NFC North is already beyond them, but they are in a strong position in the Wild Card hunt at this minute in time.

The New Orleans Saints (8-3) did their Play Off hopes no harm as they punished the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, although they remain just 1 game clear of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. They will be aware of the importance of continuing to knock off potential Wild Card rivals to maintain the head to head edge as we get into the final stretch before the push for the SuperBowl.

I have to say that the Saints are one of the few teams I think can match up well with the Packers in the NFC as the Offense has just as many weapons and a QB in Drew Brees who is as good as any in the NFL. Brees should have a successful day throwing the ball to his various receivers as the Lions are missing a number of key players in the Secondary while Ndamukong Suh is suspended for his stamp on Thanksgiving Day.

With the Lions run Defense struggling all year, the Saints should find the required balance to keep the Defense honest and not commit to the pass game and that should all lead to New Orleans moving the ball consistently and scoring at will as they did on Monday.

The Lions will look to keep up but they have come off the boil from their early season performances and the loss of Jahvid Best has proven to be difficult to overcome. It will be very difficult for Detroit to find some effectiveness in their rushing attack if Kevin Smith also misses out after the veteran showed some moves a couple of weeks ago against Carolina.

Smith is questionable for this game having left the game with the Packers in the 1st Quarter otherwise he would have been expected to get something going on the ground against a Saints Defense that has struggled to stop the run all year, except when they faced the Giants last week.

Without an effective running game, the pressure will be on Matt Stafford to make the throws that keeps the Lions level with the Saints. Stafford should have some success against this Secondary, but he has to be careful in turning the ball over, something Eli Manning could not avoid last week. This has been a problem for Stafford in recent games, although he was suffering with a thumb injury that looks to have cleared up.

Another issue for Stafford to overcome will be the pass rush New Orleans can generate, especially as the Lions Offensive Line has failed to protect the player under Center this season.

Head to Head

These two teams last met in 2009, at the same Stadium, and the Saints came out as the 18 point winners while covering the 14 point spread.

New Orleans also crushed Detroit in Mo-Town the year before that last meeting, covering a 7 point spread in victory.

New Orleans are 7-4 against the spread this season, Detroit are 6-4-1.

Other Interesting Trends

New Orleans have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record on the road.

Detroit are 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Prediction

I like the New Orleans Saints to win this game for the following reasons:

First, the Saints are playing very well, especially at home, and they have far too many weapons for the Lions to keep off the board.

Second, Detroit are missing some big defensive pieces this week and will find it tough to slow this Offense.

Third, Detroit's own Offense is a little short-handed, especially at running back, and Matt Stafford is making too many mistakes in recent games and will not be able to lead his team out of a hole if they find themselves in one.

Fourth, teams coming off a Monday Night blowout win are 41-23 against the spread in their next game.

The Statistics :

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-28	W	49-24	H v New York Giants
	2011-11-06	W	27-16	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2011-10-23	W	62-7	H v Indianapolis Colts
	2011-09-25	W	40-33	H v Houston Texans
	2011-09-18	W	30-13	H v Chicago Bears
	2011-01-02	L	13-23	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DETROIT LIONS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-13	L	37-13	A v Chicago Bears
	2011-10-30	W	10-45	A v Denver Broncos
	2011-10-02	W	30-34	A v Dallas Cowboys
	2011-09-25	W	23-26	A v Minnesota Vikings
	2011-09-11	W	20-27	A v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2010-12-26	W	27-34	A v Miami Dolphins

HEAD TO HEAD NEW ORLEANS SAINTS v DETROIT LIONS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2009-09-13	New Orleans Saints	45-27	Detroit Lions
2005-12-24	New Orleans Saints	12-13	Detroit Lions
2000-09-03	New Orleans Saints	10-14	Detroit Lions
1997-09-21	New Orleans Saints	35-17	Detroit Lions
1993-09-19	New Orleans Saints	14-3	Detroit Lions
1990-10-28	New Orleans Saints	10-27	Detroit Lions