NFL Football
2011-12-04 - Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 13
Sunday 4 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Denver Broncos (6-5) are riding the Tim Tebow bandwagon as they continue to chase down the Oakland Raiders in the AFC West, sitting 1 game behind the Raiders. Surprisingly, they are still fully in the Play Off picture this season as they look to earn at least a Wild Card spot, but there are still some doubts if the team can keep winning in the manner they are.
The Broncos will visit the Minnesota Vikings (2-9) this week, a team that is out of the Play Offs and most likely looking forward to the end of the season as injuries begin to take their toll on a veteran squad led by a rookie QB.
The Vikings will be missing Adrian Peterson in this game and may also be without Percy Harvin who has been suffering with an illness all week. That will take away a huge amount of the Offense this team will look to generate and will make life that much tougher for Christian Ponder.
It makes it tough for Ponder that he will also be facing a Defense that is playing as well as any unit in the NFL. The Broncos have generated 10 sacks in 3 games coming into this one and they should be able to slow down the Vikings rushing attack enough to leave Ponder in obvious passing situations and let their dogs loose. With all the Offensive injuries, it will be tough for Minnesota to keep the chains moving with consistency.
The Broncos Defense have really kept the team in games during the Tebow period, allowing the QB to make his big 4th Quarter comebacks. The triple option Offense is not exactly destroying teams, but they are wearing Defenses out and been able to make big plays in the second halves of games.
Minnesota have been stout against the run this season, but the triple option is not an easy read for Defenses and I do expect Denver to be able to get something going on the ground. That will open up some passing lanes against a depleted Secondary so look out for Eric Decker going over the top for some Tebow passes.
Head to Head
These two teams last met in 2007 with Denver winning by a field goal in overtime at Mile High. They last played in Minnesota in 2003 with the Vikings winning by 8 points.
Minnesota are 4-5-2 against the spread this season, Denver are 6-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Minnesota are 2-9-2 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record. They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
Denver are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog. They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Prediction
I am a little surprised to see Denver as the underdogs in this game and I will back them to win straight up for the following reasons:
First, Minnesota have so many injuries on both sides of the ball that I find it hard to believe they can stop Denver consistently and also score enough points against the Broncos Defense.
Second, Denver are playing with so much confidence right now and I think they should have been the slight favourites not the slight underdogs in this game.
Third, there is much more belief in the Denver team than the Minnesota one.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Minnesota Vikings 17-23 Denver Broncos
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Denver Broncos to win @ 2.10
