NCAA Football
2011-12-03 - LSU Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 14
Saturday 3 December 2011 - Kick Off 4pm ET
9pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The SEC Championship is going to be decided in Atlanta this weekend so the Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) will be heavily backed in the stands to really put the cat amongst the pigeons and end the LSU Tigers (12-0) unbeaten start to the season. A win is unlikely to dent the Tigers ambitions of making it to the National Championship Game, but would almost certainly end Alabama's interest and open the doors to the likes of Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and possibly even someone like Stanford.
Both of these teams should have a ton of confidence coming into the Championship Game as they are riding long winning runs. Both also had big wins last week when the Tigers hammered the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Bulldogs beat local rivals Georgia Tech on the road.
This will not be an easy game for LSU as they face another tough Defense which should force their own Offense to produce their best. The Bulldogs will look to slow down the Tigers rushing attack that is producing 5 yards per carry using their own Defense that has allowed just 3 yards per carry over the course of the season. However, Georgia Tech were able to find running lanes and actually were going at 4.6 yards per clip last week.
LSU will look to their rushing game to keep the Bulldogs powerful pass rush off of them and to keep their QBs in short and manageable situations. Georgia's pass Defense has been strong for much of the year, and they are playing with plenty of confidence. However, Jordan Jefferson is the likely starter at QB and his dual threat will make it tough for the Defense to stop the Tigers consistently.
On the other side of the coin, it will be interesting to see how the Georgia Bulldogs Offense can cope against one of the best Defenses in the nation, and certainly the best they have met so far this year. Running the ball has proven to be very difficult for teams this season as the Tigers are giving up just 2.6 yards per carry on the year- it could be tough for the Bulldogs as they struggled to run the ball without Isaiah Crowell. Crowell should be back this week but he won't be at 100%.
That means there will be a lot of pressure on Aaron Murray to move the ball using his arm against an LSU Secondary that has only allowed 162 yards per game through the air. Murray has been very good this season, throwing 32 TDs and only 10 Interceptions, but LSU showed what they are capable of last week when shutting Tyler Wilson and the Arkansas Offense and this figures to be a tough day for Murray.
The QB has also been guilty of inconsistent play during the year, as shown in his struggles to get things done against the porous Kentucky Secondary a couple of weeks ago. Anything less than his 'A' game will make this very difficult for the Georgia Bulldogs.
Head to Head
LSU won the last meeting between the schools in 2009, covering the spread on that occasion.
Georgia had won the previous 3 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread.
Georgia are 8-4 against the spread this season, LSU are 9-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Georgia are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the underdog of 10.5 points or more.
LSU are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
They are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games on a neutral site.
Prediction
I think the LSU Tigers are too fired up at the moment and will find a way to win this game with a little bit to spare and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Tigers are playing some fine football at the moment and will feel confident they can shut down this Offense following their performance against Arkansas last week.
Second, Georgia won't have faced a team as good as LSU this year, while the Tigers are much more battle hardened and have won in tough hostile environments already.
Third, Aaron Murray has been a little inconsistent in games this season and this could be a tough day if the team falls behind.
The Pick :
Georgia Bulldogs 13-30 LSU Tigers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the LSU Tigers -13 Points @ 1.92
