NCAA Football
2011-12-03 - Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 14
Saturday 3 December 2011 - Kick Off 12:30pm ET
5:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The final game of the regular season gives the Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) a chance to perhaps earn a share of the Big 12 Championship as long as the Oklahoma Sooners can also beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys. They face the Iowa State Cyclones (6-5) who may be just looking to wind down their season after upsetting the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago.
Kansas State have been a surprise package for most of the season, winning many games as the underdog, while pushing teams like Oklahoma State. They won't be playing in one of the big Bowl games, but this has been a successful season regardless and Bill Snyder will want his team to finish on a high.
The Wildcats very much rely on their rushing attack to wear teams down and I fully expect them to go to that game-plan early and often on Saturday. While the team are going at 4.1 yards per carry, the Iowa State Defense has struggled to stop teams on the ground all season. The Cyclones have already allowed 19 rushing TDs and I expect that will be added to on Saturday.
With the rushing Offense expected to move the chains for the Wildcats, that should allow Collin Klein to make plays with his arms as well as his legs this week. Iowa State are giving up just under 250 yards per game through the air and could be punished if they load more men in the box to stop the run game. Kansas State don't rely on their passing Offense, but Iowa State get little pressure on the QB and that could allow Klein to keep the chains moving off play-action and deep balls over the top of the Secondary.
Iowa State beat Oklahoma State in OT a couple of weeks ago, but were taken care of easily by Oklahoma last time out and there is the feeling that they may have left everything on the field against the Cowboys. The problem for the Cyclones is their Offensive strength matches up well with the Wildcats Defensive strength and that could make it tough for them to move the chains.
The Wildcats have limited teams against the run all season and they could force the Cyclones to take to the air to ensure they can keep the Offense on the field. While Kansas State have struggled to stop teams throwing the ball, Iowa State are completing just 51% of their passing attempts and are liable to turning the ball over.
Head to Head
Kansas State have won the last 3 games between the schools, going 2-1 against the spread in those.
The Wildcats are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against the Cyclones, going 3-2 against the spread.
Kansas State are 9-2 against the spread this season, Iowa State are 6-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Kansas State are 17-5 against the spread in their last 22 games in Conference play.
They are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.
Iowa State have won their last 4 games against the spread against teams with winning records.
Prediction
I am going to back the Kansas State Wildcats for the following reasons:
First, I have a feeling Iowa State put in their last big performance of the regular season against Oklahoma State and I am not sure they are motivated enough for this game.
Second, Kansas State should be able to find plenty of success with their rushing attack in this game and score enough points to cover the spread.
Third, Iowa State's Offense matches up very well with the Wildcats Defense and that could make it difficult for them to keep the chains moving with consistency.
Fourth, I think the Iowa State team are likely to give up more turnovers than Kansas State and that could be the difference in covering the spread or not for the Wildcats.
The Pick :
Kansas State 27-13 Iowa State Cyclones
