NCAA Football
2011-12-03 - Southern Mississippi at Houston Cougars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 14
Saturday 3 December 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a big game for both the Houston Cougars (12-0) and the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (10-2) as they have a chance to win the Conference USA. This is also a bigger game as both schools could be losing their Head Coaches in the coming months with 'bigger' schools sniffing around.
The Cougars have a chance to complete an unbeaten season, although they have almost zero chance of reaching the National Championship Game even if they do. That doesn't mean any less to them as they could be one of the 'at-large' schools that can earn a berth in one of the big BCS Bowls as long as they can win this one.
Case Keenum and the Offense have not be slowed down by anybody this season and it is tough to imagine the Golden Eagles managing to succeed where so many have failed. One thing going for the Defense in this game is that they have been able to stop the run consistently all year, making Offenses one-dimensional.
The problem for that Defense in this game is Houston very much rely on the throwing arm of Keenum. The Secondary has played well for the most part this year, but they don't get enough pressure on the opposition QB and that can only lead to trouble against Keenum who has thrown 43 TDs and just 3 Interceptions this year.
Southern Mississippi can at least look to their own Offense to try and keep things close and make the game competitive. The Golden Eagles have the top rushing attack in the Conference and that will mean they should be able to eat some time off the clock, especially as the Cougars are susceptible to rushing attacks.
The Golden Eagles will then look to the throwing arm of Austin Davis to make enough plays to ensure the team score TDs on drives and not settle for field goals. Davis has 24 TD passes this season but also has 10 Interceptions and cannot afford to make mistakes in this game. Houston's Defense has played the pass fairly well as they can generate some pressure on the opposition QB, but it does look like a game where both teams should be able to move the chains and score points.
That means it should boil down to which of the teams make the least amount of mistakes to determine which one wins.
Head to Head
Southern Mississippi beat Houston by 18 points last season, but that was a game Case Keenum missed through injury. Houston had won the previous 2 meetings between the schools.
The Cougars are now 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 meetings between the schools.
Houston are 10-2 against the spread this season, Southern Mississippi are 7-4-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Houston are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.
Southern Mississippi are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
Prediction
This should be a tight game for a while, but I expect the Houston Cougars to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Houston are more than capable of putting up a bunch of points as they have been all season and that puts the pressure on Southern Mississippi to keep up.
Second, the Golden Eagles are capable of making mistakes on the Offensive side of the ball and that could eventually lead to Houston pulling away and negating the Southern Mississippi run game.
Third, this is a great revenge angle for the Cougars from last season after they were given a beat-down without their starting QB.
The Pick :
Houston Cougars 48-34 Southern Mississippi
