NFL Football
2011-11-27 - Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 12
Sunday 27 November 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) have been able to recharge their batteries with a bye in Week 11, and they will now know they are in a battle with Baltimore for the AFC North although their position for a Wild Card spot was strengthened by defeats for the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. They face a slumping Kansas City Chiefs (4-6) team that comes off a heavy Monday Night Football loss.
Kansas City are missing Matt Cassel at QB, with it looking more and more likely that he will be placed on injured reserve for the rest of the season. The Chiefs are still in contention in the poor AFC West as they are just 2 games behind Oakland, but the vast drop off in the QB position and poor Defense in recent games makes it tough to have faith in them.
Tyler Palko started off well against New England on Monday Night, but then proceeded to throw 3 Interceptions which sent the game away from the Chiefs. The Defense also played well in that game, but the Interceptions meant the Patriots took advantage of short fields and were able to win going away.
The Chiefs will not have it easy against the Pittsburgh Steelers, although their Defense is still trying to find its way to picking up more turnovers. LaMarr Woodley could return this week having had the bye week to catch up and he will cause havoc with James Harrison against a Kansas City Offensive Line that has struggled all year. After watching some of Palko's throws on Monday Night, the Steelers will feel they can add to their turnover ratio.
Pittsburgh's Defense has also begun to play better against the run before the bye week and they should be able to deal with Jackie Battle and Thomas Jones, so it looks like another tough day for the Chiefs to move the ball with any consistency.
Ben Roethlisberger has admitted he will be playing through pain for the Steelers in this game, and it will be interesting to see if this 'pass first' Offense has to change its game plan to accommodate the injury to their QB. The Chiefs will likely give Roethlisberger time to pass as they have struggled to get an effective pass rush together and there are plenty of play makers on the Offense that should allow the Steelers to move the chains.
Rashad Mendenhall should also have a strong game as the Chiefs have had a hard time stopping the run for the most part, giving up 4.8 yards per carry in their last 5 games. The running lanes could be opened up if Roethlisberger has success through the air and it all leads to the Steelers moving the chains with some consistency.
Head to Head
These teams last met in 2009 when the Kansas City Chiefs beat Pittsburgh by 3 points at Arrowhead in a game they were considered the underdogs by 10.5 points.
Both teams are 5-5 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Trends
Kansas City are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog. They are just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games following an appearance on Monday Night Football.
A team losing by double-digits on the road on MNF (like Kansas did) are 12-27 against the spread in their next game when playing at home.
Pittsburgh are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the favourite.
Road favourites coming off a bye are 33-10 against the spread.
Prediction
I am going to take the road team to win this game for the following reasons:
First, Pittsburgh should be fully focused on this game coming off a bye week and they will know they cannot afford to drop games against AFC opponents as it will have big Wild Card implications.
Second, the Steelers should be able to move the ball much freer than their opponents who may just struggle after the beating they took in the second half against New England.
Third, the trends relating to teams performances of a Monday Night Football beating coupled with the road favourite coming off a bye favours the Steelers in this spot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Kansas City Chiefs 13-27 Pittsburgh Steelers
