NFL Football
2011-11-27 - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 12
Sunday 27 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is an AFC South meeting between two teams that have different ambitions this season as the Houston Texans (7-3) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7). The Texans lead the Division by 2 games from the Tennessee Titans, but they have been dealing with big injuries all season and will be starting their back up QB as Matt Schaub is injured.
That means Matt Leinart, a former top 10 pick of the Arizona Cardinals, is going to be given the keys to the Offense. Leinart has never really performed in the National Football League, but has been given a chance as Schaub is likely out for the rest of the season. He faces a tough Jaguars pass Defense, but has had two weeks to prepare for the game and will have a huge weapon in Andre Johnson back in the line up.
A bigger advantage for Leinart is that the Texans are unlikely to rely on his arm more than they rely on the running of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, two running backs who have combined for over 1400 yards this season and 9 TDs. The Texans should be able to get the chains moving with these two backs, especially against a Jacksonville team that gave up 129 yards to Cleveland at the weekend and one who have allowed 4.1 yards per carry this year.
With the running game likely to move the chains or set up Leinart in short and manageable situations, the Texans should be able to keep the scoreboard ticking over, enough to win this game and cover the spread.
That will be down to the fact that the Houston Defense has been very impressive for most of the season and they have already shut down Blaine Gabbert's Offense once already this season. Jonathan Joseph was brought in to shore up the pass Defense that struggled so much last season, while the appointment of Wade Phillips as Defensive Co-Ordinator has been a master stroke.
Houston will likely play this game in a similar manner to the first meeting between the teams- they have given up 4.2 yards per carry this season in defending the run, but they shut down Maurice Jones-Drew in the first game, while MJD struggled against Cleveland at the weekend too.
With the run game struggling, it will allow Houston to send the blitz after Gabbert, and that has seen the young QB struggle all season, which makes it tough for Jacksonville to move the chains with consistency.
Head to Head
Houston beat Jacksonville by 10 points earlier this season, covering the 9.5 point spread in the process.
Jacksonville have won their last 4 home games against Houston, going 3-1 against the spread in those games. Jacksonville are 4-5-1 against the spread this season, Houston are 6-3-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Jacksonville are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog.
Houston are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite.
Road favourites are 33-10 against the spread when coming off a bye.
Prediction
I like the Houston Texans to win and cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, there is a clear indication that good teams seem to play that much harder when their starting QB is missing, as other players feel they have to do more to make an impact for the win.
Second, Houston should be able to establish a running game in this contest, while Jacksonville have a lot of injuries on the Defensive side of the ball. This will make it tough for the Jaguars to keep up.
Third, the Houston Defense has been fantastic for much of the season and have already shut down the Offense of the Jaguars. If the Texans get to 17 points, that may already be enough to cover the spread.
Fourth, the statistic regarding road favourites off a bye week is hard to ignore and suggests the extra week of preparation is enough for them to take full advantage.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Jacksonville Jaguars 13-17 Houston Texans
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Houston Texans -3.5 Points @ 2.05
