NFL Football
2011-11-27 - Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 12
Sunday 27 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The AFC Play Off picture has become a little clearer over the last couple of weeks- it looks like the Buffalo Bills (5-5) and the New York Jets (5-5) are going to be involved in a chase for the final Wild Card spot after some devastating defeats in the last month. Both teams are chasing New England in the AFC East, but the Patriots have a very straight-forward schedule to negotiate, which could leave these teams out in the cold.
Both Buffalo and New York will be coming into this game off losing runs. The Bills fell at Miami, meaning they have lost 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5 games, while the Jets have lost back to back games and will want to avoid their second 3 game losing streak of the season.
As I mentioned in my Buffalo-Miami preview, the Bills have so many injuries on both sides of the ball that is effectively de-railing their season. Fred Jackson is the latest player to be banged up, but the AFC leading rusher should still be suited up on Sunday. However, the Offensive Line and Defensive Line are both missing big pieces, while Ryan Fitzpatrick has been in a slump ever since signing his big shiny contract.
The Jets were very good against the triple-option attack of the Denver Broncos for 57 minutes, but blew the win in the final minutes as 'Tebow Time' once again came into play. The Defense plays the run well and the Offensive Line problems for the Bills means it unlikely that Jackson can be established in the running game and that will only put more pressure on Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick has been really having a hard time in recent games as he is not given the protection to find receivers, while his best play-maker Stevie Johnson is banged up. With Darrelle Revis shutting down one half of the field, it is going to be a tough day in the office for Buffalo to find the consistency to move the chains.
Buffalo are struggling, but the Jets are in no less a slump as Mark Sanchez continues to feed his critics with more ammunition with poor decisions and performances contributing to the Offense struggles. However, Sanchez will at least point to the fact that his last decent performance came against Buffalo and he should have some success against a porous Secondary.
The Bills relied on their ability to turn the ball over in the early part of the season, but the Secondary has been allowing teams to move the chains and I expect Sanchez will be able to utilise Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes as he should be given short and manageable situations by the running game, something Buffalo have struggled to stop in recent games.
Shonn Greene will get the bulk of the carries as LaDanian Tomlinson could be missing again this week and I expect the Jets will be able to move the chains consistently on the ground. Buffalo have been allowing teams to run all over them in recent games and the Jets went for 129 yards a couple of weeks ago. With the running game established, I would guess Sanchez will be in short and manageable situations, while also getting a lot of time as Buffalo have struggled to get to the QB all season.
Head to Head
New York beat Buffalo by 16 points earlier this season, covering the spread as the underdog.
That is the 4th straight win in the series for the Jets, both straight up and against the spread, and Buffalo have failed to score more than 14 points in any of those games.
The Jets covered in their last home game against Buffalo, but it is the Bills who have covered the spread in their previous 4 visits to New York.
New York are 4-6 against the spread this season, Buffalo are 4-5-1.
Other Interesting Trends
New York are just 1-4 against the spread in their previous 5 games following a straight up loss.
Buffalo are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
I like the New York Jets to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo are really hurting on both sides of the ball with injuries and they are going to have a tough time moving the ball with any real consistency.
Second, the Jets have had a few additional days to prepare for this game and get over the emotional loss to the Denver Broncos last time out. Rex Ryan should have them fired up to come out and put it on the Bills this time and get back into the Play Off race.
Third, the Jets have dominated the Bills in recent meetings and hammered them when the met earlier this season.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New York Jets 24-14 Buffalo Bills
