NFL Football
2011-11-24 - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 12
Thursday 24 November 2011 - Kick Off 12:30pm ET
5:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
At one stage during this season, it looked like the NFC North was going to be a straight fight between the Green Bay Packers (10-0) and the Detroit Lions (7-3). While the Packers have kept going forward, the Lions have struggled in recent weeks coinciding with their loss of Jahvid Best from the running game.
It looked like the one-dimensional aspect of the Lions was going to hurt them again last weekend as they fell behind to Carolina by a couple of scores, but the resurgence of Kevin Smith led the team back from a heavy deficit to win the game. That was actually the 3rd time this season they have come back from a 17 + point deficit at half time, the first time in the NFL.
I have to expect Kevin Smith will at least put in another performance similar to last Sunday and that should help out the whole Offense. The Packers have struggled to keep the run in check, giving up 4.7 yards per carry, and the presence of Smith will at least give Detroit a chance for check down passes and screens to help Matt Stafford out behind Center.
With Detroit now having the ability to run the ball, that should give Stafford a little more time to find his receivers, particularly Calvin Johnson. This has been a struggle as teams have been happy to send a pass rush at the QB who has had a hard time behind a porous Offensive Line, but now I expect the Lions can find a way to take advantage of a suspect Green Bay Secondary.
Detroit should move the ball throughout the contest and I fully expect this Green Bay Offense to be able to do the same in their current form. Aaron Rodgers wasn't at his ultimate best against Tampa Bay on Sunday, yet the team still won easily enough and they have still yet to be pegged back to within less 6 points this season.
The only issue for the Packers will be what they do themselves as I can't see Detroit being able to stop them enough in this contest without silly mistakes committed by the Offense. There are too many weapons for Rodgers and he is able to quickly get rid of the ball which also means any pass rush will be negated. The Detroit Secondary is still a weakness so the Pack should move the ball through the air.
James Starks could potentially be missing in the running game for Green Bay, but running the ball is not the main priority for this Offense. Ryan Grant could get extended playing time in the absence of Starks, and he should have a chance to get established as the Lions have not been able to stop the run with any consistency.
The game looks set to develop into a shoot-out, although I would not want to be in Detroit's shoes if they fall behind as they have in games this season.
Head to Head
Green Bay and Detroit split the season series last year, both winning their home games, although the Lions went 2-0 against the spread.
The Packers had gone 7-1 against the spread in the previous 8 games in the series and they had covered 4 in a row at Detroit before last season.
Detroit are 6-3-1 against the spread this season, Green Bay are 7-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Detroit are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They have lost their last 7 games against the spread on Thanksgiving Day.
Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 27-11-1 against the spread in their last 39 games.
Prediction
I am sticking with Green Bay to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I want to stick with the Packers at the moment as they are playing to a very high level and look ahead of all their competition.
Second, Detroit have had some big comebacks this season, but that won't cut it here if they fall in a big hole to the Packers.
Third, Detroit have struggled under the expectation of playing on Thanksgiving in recent history and they may feel a little bit of the pressure here.
Fourth, Green Bay have beaten every team they have played by at least 6 points and should be fully focused to increase their grip on the North by knocking off their biggest rival.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Detroit Lions 27-35 Green Bay Packers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers -6 Points @ 1.95
