Penn State at Wisconsin Badgers Betting pick | 2011-11-26

NCAA Football

2011-11-26 - Penn State at Wisconsin Badgers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Wisconsin Badgers
United States: NCAA Football Week 13
Saturday 26 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

Another Conference that will confirm its Championship Game this week is the Big Ten as the Leaders Division is up for grabs between the teams competing here to earn the right to face the Michigan State Spartans. The Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) lost back to back games on the road in the middle of the season, but can still take the Division with a win here, while the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2) try to end an awful season with a measure of success.

Penn State have performed well on the field, but the allegations that have destroyed their reputation off the field continues to tarnish them. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 in the Big Ten this season, but will fail to win the Division if they are beaten by Wisconsin who are 5-2 in the Conference.

Wisconsin really made their impact on the nation early in the season and had one of the leading contenders for the Heisman in QB Russell Wilson, but the back to back defeats to Ohio State and Michigan State likely ended his chances of winning that. However, winning the first Big Ten Championship in its current format will be a successful season for the Badgers and give them a shot at one of the prominent Bowl games.

Wilson provides a dual-threat from the QB position, but the running game will need to be established by Montee Bell and James White. The Badgers have gained 5.7 yards per carry in games this year, but face a tough Penn State Defense that allows 3.4 yards per carry. That means it is likely that Wilson tries to open the running lanes by running with the ball more often than he has this season and he is definitely someone that can throw the ball and create opportunities with his arm.

The QB has 26 TD passes and 3 Interceptions this season, completing over 70% of his attempts, but he will have a big test against Penn State who have been strong against the pass this year and are only allowing an average of 160 yards through the air. The Badgers have been able to spread the ball around with their passing game as 4 different receivers have picked up the 26 TD passes.

Wisconsin should be able to move the ball against Penn State, but they won't have it easy as the Nittany Lions have really performed well on Defense.

It is always tough for teams playing back to back road games and that is the case for Penn State this week as they play arguably the best team in the Big Ten. Silas Redd will be given the ball a lot on Offense for Penn State as they look to get a running game going and protect their QB in short and manageable situations. Redd has 7 TDs this year and will need to be at his best to keep Penn State moving the chains. The Nittany Lions have gained 4.2 yards per carry this year, but the Badgers have been decent at holding teams to 3.8 yards per carry.

That means there is still going to be some pressure on Matt McGloin to complete passes against a tough pass Defense. McGloin has thrown 4 TD passes but also 7 Interceptions in games this season and Penn State have struggled Offensively to get things going consistently. Wisconsin have allowed less than 150 yards per game through the air and I imagine they will look to make the Penn State Offense one-dimensional by loading the line of scrimmage and force McGloin to beat them with his arm.

Head to Head

Penn State have blown out Wisconsin in the last 2 meetings between the schools, although the last of those came in 2008.

The Badgers are 3-2 against the spread in their last 5 games against Penn State at home, both straight up and against the spread.

The favourite has won the last 6 games against the spread in the series.

Wisconsin are 6-4-1 against the spread this season, Penn State are 3-7-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Wisconsin are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.

Penn State are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.

Prediction

I like Wisconsin to make a big statement in this game and show why they are still considered to be the best team in the Big Ten by covering the spread in this game. I like the Badgers for the following reasons:

First, Wisconsin have been perfect in front of their own fans this season, winning all 7 games with the lowest margin of victory being 31 points. Penn State are arguably the best team they have faced at home this season, although the Badgers did hammer Nebraska.

Second, Penn State have been challenged Offensively all season and the Badgers Defense is good enough to force the Nittany Lions to move the ball through the air by limiting the running game, something that will be tough for Penn State.

Third, the Badgers look better on both sides of the ball while I still believe Penn State are one of the most over-rated teams.