Virginia Tech at Virginia Cavaliers Betting pick | 2011-11-26

NCAA Football

2011-11-26 - Virginia Tech at Virginia Cavaliers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Virginia Cavaliers
United States: NCAA Football Week 13
Saturday 26 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The ACC know that the Clemson Tigers will be representing the Atlantic Division in the Championship Game, but the Coastal Division representative will be decided this weekend when two local rivals face off. The Virginia Tech Hokies (10-1) are in control of the Division, but they would be foolish to ignore the credentials of the Virginia Cavaliers (8-3) who have won 4 in a row.

Virginia Tech are 6-1 in ACC games this season and hold a one game lead over the Cavaliers who are 5-2. That means the winner of this game will be moving forward to face Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and both will feel confident they can get that vital win.

The Hokies will want to stick to their game plan and try to establish their running game to keep the team in short and manageable situations. The primary running back is David Wilson, although he has been having issues with fumbles in recent games and he will be backed by Josh Oglesby, while Logan Thomas provides a dual threat from the QB position. Virginia Tech have earned 4.7 yards per carry this season, but now face a Cavaliers Defense that has allowed just 3.7 yards on the year.

While Virginia have been tough against the run, they did allow Florida State to go at 5.6 yards per clip in their last game and you have to think the Hokies will find a way to get things moving on the ground, while the Cavaliers are also susceptible to a big play.

The key to getting anything established on the ground with a dual threat QB is making sure the opposition know that the chains can be moved on the ground. That is the case with Thomas who has 16 TD passes and 7 Interceptions on the season and he also has completed 60% of his passes. The Virginia Defense does play the pass well, but Thomas will be well protected by his Offensive Line and that should mean running lanes are created if the Defense drops back into coverage.

While I believe the Virginia Defense will make things tough, the Hokies have a very strong Defense themselves which should create some difficulties Michael Rocco and this Offense.

Like Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers will look for a way to get Perry Jones and Kevin Parks established in the running game. These players have combined for 13 TDs on the ground and have helped the team go at 4.4 yards per carry, but they now face the stout Virginia Tech Defense that has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry this year. The Hokies recently gave the Georgia Tech triple option running game a tough time so should be able to have some success against Virginia here.

The biggest difference between the two teams could be the very good passing Defense Virginia Tech operate, one that has restricted teams to 48% completions on the year. They will make it tough for Rocco to keep the chains moving through the air, while keeping the Cavaliers in obvious passing situations will mean they can unleash their pass rush which has been effective all year. Rocco has 11 TD passes and 9 Interceptions this season and may find it tough to keep things ticking along if they cannot establish a strong running game or if the team falls behind.

Head to Head

Virginia Tech have won their last 7 games against Virginia, including a 30 point win at home last year.

The Hokies have also won on their last 3 visits to Virginia, both straight up and against the spread.

Virginia Tech are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.

The favourite is 8-1 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.

Virginia are 6-5 against the spread this season, Virginia Tech are 3-8.

Other Interesting Trends

Virginia are 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Virginia Tech are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favourite.

Prediction

I know both sides will be fully motivated for this game considering what is at stake, but I am going to favour the road team to cover the spread and win the game for the following reasons:

First, Virginia Tech seem to be a little stronger on both sides of the ball even though both want to implement the same kind of game plan and that could be the difference here.

Second, the Hokies have a fantastic recent record against their local rivals and have been covering the spread in those games more often than not.

Third, the Hokies seem to have the slightly more secure QB and are much more likely to get to the opposition QB from obvious passing situations.