NCAA Football
2011-11-26 - Alabama at Auburn Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 13
Saturday 26 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Iron Bowl is a big game every year, but it takes on added significance for the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) who can earn their spot in the National Championship Game with one more impressive performance. There is also an outside chance the Crimson Tide are playing for a chance to win the SEC West depending on the Arkansas result when they visit the LSU Tigers on Friday.
The Auburn Tigers (7-4) would love to stick a spanner in the works for their big rivals in the first meeting between the schools since Auburn's Toomer's Corners Trees were poisoned by Alabama fan Harvey Updyke last year.
Alabama's sole defeat came a couple of weeks ago against the LSU Tigers, while the Auburn team are only 4-3 in SEC play this season including a couple of big blow-out losses to Georgia and LSU.
Things won't be much easier for Auburn's Defense in this game as they come up against Heisman chasing Trent Richardson and a powerful running game the Crimson Tide run. Alabama also have Eddie Lacy to help Richardson from the line of scrimmage and they are helping the team earn 5.6 yards per carry this season while combining for 27 TDs on the ground. The Tigers Defense has allowed 4.6 yards per carry, but Georgia and LSU both went for higher than their season average so it has to be expected that the Crimson Tide move the chains on the ground.
With the running game expected to do the majority of the damage, AJ McCarron should be kept in manageable situations and will not need to make as many big plays. He should have chances to go down the field of play-action, while I expect he will have a decent chance of converting short and manageable situations against a Tigers Secondary that allows 62% of passes to be completed and whose pass rush should be slowed by the Alabama running game.
Auburn will need to find a way to get Michael Dyer established in the running game if they want to even keep up with Alabama in this one, but the Crimson Tide Defense is one of the best when it comes to playing the run, giving up just 2.5 yards per carry. The LSU Defense is the closest thing to Alabama that Auburn would have seen, but Dyer managed just 60 yards in that game while the team were restricted to 2.6 yards per carry.
If the running game is struggling, that will mean there is even more pressure on Clint Moseley, the young QB who has been taking more and more snaps for the reigning National Champions. It will not be easy for Moseley out of obvious passing situations as his Offensive Line has struggled all season and that could lead to mistakes against a Defense that is allowing just 47% of passes to be completed.
If Auburn fall behind, it could be too much to ask Moseley to keep up against this Defense and it could end up getting away from the Tigers.
Head to Head
Auburn beat Alabama by 1 point in Tuscaloosa last season behind a great second half comeback. Auburn won the game despite being the 4.5 point underdogs.
That win also improved Auburn to 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Auburn have won their last 3 games at home against the spread when facing Alabama.
Alabama are 7-3 against the spread this season, Auburn are 4-7.
Other Interesting Trends
Auburn have won their last 6 games against the spread as the home underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games in Conference play.
Alabama are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of more than 10.5 points.
Prediction
This is going to be a loud and passionate game, but I think Alabama have found the door to the National Championship Game has been left open and I expect them to put in a dominant display to make sure voters pick them to play in the big game. That should allow them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Nick Saban is brilliant in revenge spots, even if he fell to Les Miles in such a situation earlier this season. Usually, Nick Saban teams win big in such a spot.
Second, Auburn have struggled against the best teams they have faced, with Arkansas, LSU and Georgia all winning by at least 24 points, albeit Auburn were on the road in those games.
Third, Alabama should be able to run all over this Defense, while their own Defense should set up good field positions against a much younger Tigers team than last season.
This is the Iron Bowl though, so I would be a little careful as Auburn could easily rise to the occasion. However, their struggles against the best teams in the SEC is noticeable and so I have to take Alabama to continue that trend.
The Pick :
Auburn Tigers 13-38 Alabama
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Alabama Crimson Tide -20.5 Points @ 1.90
