NCAA Football
2011-11-26 - Michigan State at Northwestern
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 13
Saturday 26 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Big Ten Legends Division was secured by the Michigan State Spartans (9-2) last week as they beat Indiana while Nebraska, the only team that could have taken the Division off of them, were beaten by Michigan in the Big House. The Spartans end their regular season with a game against the suddenly confidence filled Northwestern Wildcats (6-5) who have won 4 in a row.
Michigan State secured the Division with a 6-2 record meaning they hold the lead by 1 game over the Michigan Wolverines- they beat the Wolverines in the big game earlier this season which means they hold the head to head advantage over their great rivals. Northwestern have a 3-4 record in Big Ten play this season, but they have shown they are capable of hanging with the best teams with a 3 point win in Nebraska during their winning run.
The biggest issue for the Spartans could be whether they have remained focused on this game as they do know they have a Big Ten Championship Game forthcoming, and we have seen teams lose motivation once things like this are on the horizon.
However, there were the same issues last week that perhaps a lack of motivation would affect the team when they played Indiana, yet Michigan State came out firing and ended up with a big win. The Spartans will likely try to establish their running game which has not been at its best this season. They have gained 3.9 yards per carry, but I think the Wildcats Defense is susceptible to allowing big plays on the ground and Michigan State should be able to get things moving on this front.
Most of the expectations have been put on the shoulders of Kirk Cousins this season, and the QB has responded by throwing 19 TD passes and 5 Interceptions. Cousins should be able to take advantage of the Northwestern Secondary that has allowed 225 yards per game through the air, especially considering the Wildcats have struggled to get a consistent pass rush on the opposition QB. If the Spartans concentrate, they should have little issues in moving the ball with consistency.
The biggest strength the Spartans have is their Defense that does not allow teams to move the ball with any ease at all. They should be able to make the Northwestern Offense a little one-dimensional as the Spartans are only allowing 2.9 yards per game on the ground, while the Wildcats are generating just 4 yards per carry. Michigan State already showed how well they play the run when shutting down Denard Robinson and Michigan earlier this season.
With the running game likely to be non-existent, that will leave a lot of pressure on Dan Persa to make the plays with his arm to get things moving. Persa does try to provide a dual threat by making plays with his legs, but he is not the most agile of QBs and it will be his arm, which has accounted for 15 TDs and 7 Interceptions, that will look to make the difference here.
The problem for Persa is he is playing one of the better pass Defenses in College Football, while being in 3rd and long situations does not bode well for him against this pass rush. Northwestern's Offensive Line has really struggled to protect the player under Center, while the Spartans average 3 sacks per game. The Secondary is also decent at picking off balls that have been thrown in a rush to avoid the Defensive Ends collapsing the pocket and it could be a tough day for the Wildcats Offense.
Head to Head
Michigan State have won the last 3 meetings between the schools, including an 8 point win here last season when the Spartans were favoured by 5 points to win.
The underdog is now 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.
Michigan State are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 visits to Northwestern, including winning the last 2 games as the favourite.
Northwestern are 5-6 against the spread this season, Michigan State are 7-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Northwestern are 16-36 against the spread in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
They are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games in Conference play.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog between 3.5 and 10 points.
Michigan State are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I am going to take the Michigan State Spartans to win and cover the spread, even though they have won the Big Ten Legends Division. I like them for the following reasons:
First, the Spartans have had a lot of success against the Wildcats in recent games, particularly in Northwestern.
Second, the Spartans Defense is more than capable of shutting down the Wildcats running game and take their shots on Dan Persa from obvious passing situations.
Third, Michigan State's Offense should be able to move the ball with more consistency than their opponents and that should lead to more scoring situations.
Fourth, both Penn State and Michigan have won here fairly comfortably this season and I think Michigan State is a better team than both of those.
The Pick :
Northwestern 20-31 Michigan State
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Michigan State Spartans - 6.5 Points @ 1.92
