NFL Football
2011-11-20 - Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 11
Sunday 20 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The AFC East looks to be in the New England Patriots hands as the New York Jets continue to stumble, while the Buffalo Bills (5-4) have also been slumping after a hot start to the season. They travel to the suddenly rejuvenated Miami Dolphins (2-7) who will be looking for their 3rd consecutive win after a poor start to the season.
Injuries are beginning to hurt the Bills on both sides of the ball who have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and may just be wondering why they have given Ryan Fitzpatrick as much money as they have. The QB has struggled, perhaps weighed down by the amount he has in his pockets, and that needs to change if they are to get back to putting W's in the right column.
The Bills have scored just 18 points in their last 2 contests, both losses, and will not have an easy day against a Miami Defense that is finally playing to the level they were expected to be at in the pre-season. Fred Jackson is going to be used as the primarily weapon for the Offense, but goes against a Dolphins Defense that has allowed 3.8 yards per carry on the season and been even more impressive in their last 3 games when keeping teams to just 3.33 yards per carry.
The Offensive Line has been devastated with injuries as Eric Wood is out for the season while a new Left Tackle will also be on the line. With Jackson likely having a tough time getting things going, Ryan Fitzpatrick will be in a hard spot. The Dolphins have 15 sacks in their last 4 contests as they finally get a effective pass rush and I expect they will be able to take advantage of the Offensive Line problems Buffalo are having.
Fitzpatrick has also struggled to protect the ball recently, throwing 2 TD passes and 5 Interceptions in his last two games and his best receiver, Stevie Johnson, is banged up.
Miami have won 2 contests in a row after being much more competitive of late, and that could be down to the fact that they have got the running game up and moving again. Reggie Bush has put in a couple of performances that has had fans wondering where his skills have been since he moved into the pros, and I very much expect him and Daniel Thomas to take it to the Bills. That is because Buffalo are missing Kyle Williams and have struggled to contain the run since then, allowing teams to generate at least 129 yards on the ground in 3 of their last 4 games.
With Bush and Thomas getting established, Matt Moore and the passing game should find success through the air against a porous Buffalo Secondary. Moore's ability to scramble behind the Offensive Line has helped extend plays, while Brandon Marshall and Antonio Fasano have been making plays. Buffalo have struggled to get to the QB all season, excluding the win over Washington, and Moore should be able to keep the chains moving in short and manageable situations.
The one 'x factor' is the Bills ability to turn the ball over- the Defense has been excellent at taking the ball away from the opposition which has hidden some of the problems in the Secondary.
Head to Head
Buffalo came into Miami and won by 3 points last season, covering the spread as the 5.5 point underdog.
The Dolphins had already won in Buffalo earlier in the season, covering the spread as the 3 point favourites. Miami are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Miami are 3-5-1 against the spread this season, Buffalo are 4-4-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 7-29 against the spread in their last 36 games as the home favourite. They have lost their last 4 games against the spread against teams from the AFC East.
Buffalo are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points. They are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams from the AFC East.
Prediction
I am going to back the Miami Dolphins to keep the slumping Bills in a hole for the following reasons:
First, Buffalo's Lines on both sides of the ball are really hurting with injuries and that has seen the side start losing games and struggling.
Second, Miami's Defense is the better between the teams and they can keep Fitzpatrick and this Offense locked down.
Third, the Bills are struggling to stop the run and this will give the Dolphins the consistency to move the chains and control the clock.
Fourth, Miami have a good recent record against the Bills and are sure to want to maintain their momentum while hurting a Divisional rivals push for the Play Offs.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Miami Dolphins 24-20 Buffalo Bills
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Miami Dolphins -1.5 Points @ 1.95
