NFL Football
2011-11-20 - Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 11
Sunday 20 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Oakland Raiders (5-4) have had a few extra days to get ready for this game in Minnesota as they won their last game on Thursday night against the San Diego Chargers to take control of the AFC West. They have a chance to extend their lead back to 1 game if they beat the Minnesota Vikings (2-7) who come off an embarrassing performance on Monday Night Football when they were shelled by the Packers.
The Raiders had their best performance last time out since Carson Palmer took over the play-calling behind Center as they got back on the right track to earn a place in the Play Offs. The AFC West is very open this season and they have to be considered the favourites to win it.
Minnesota will need to find a way to bounce back from the defeat to the Packers, but the veteran team knows the Play Offs are already gone and I think this season probably can't end quick enough with only Divisional games being of any importance from here on in.
The Vikings should find plenty of success on the ground against the Raiders Defense, and I expect there to be a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson in this game. This will be huge for Minnesota as it will help Christian Ponder no end if he is left in short and manageable situations, while Peterson should find a way to keep the chains moving himself.
If things go as expected, it should save Ponder from another battering behind this Offensive Line which has struggled all year. The Raiders do generate a fierce pass rush so Minnesota will not want to leave their young QB in obvious passing situations as that will be the key to keeping the chains moving.
Oakland will be missing Darren McFadden again this week, but we all saw what Michael Bush is capable of doing when he is given the bulk of the carries. Bush is arguably the best back-up running back in the NFL and while he doesn't have the pace of McFadden, I expect Bush will still be able to keep the Raiders chugging the right way.
That is only good news for Palmer at QB as it will open up the play-action for him to hit his speedy receivers, especially now Antoine Winfield is ruled out. That means the Vikings will be missing their best CB and they have already been allowing over 270 yards through the air this year. I expect Palmer will help the Raiders operate enough Offensively to keep the scoreboard ticking along.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the teams since 2007 when Minnesota won by 7 points and covered the 4.5 point spread.
The Raiders are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series between the teams, but they meet irregularly.
Minnesota are 4-4-1 against the spread this season, Oakland are 6-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Minnesota are 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.
Oakland have won their last 5 games against the spread as the road team.
Prediction
I find it hard to think Minnesota are feeling themselves after their hammering on Monday Night Football and I am going to back the Oakland Raiders to keep going along for the following reasons:
First, Minnesota have to be emotionally down after losing so badly to a Divisional rival and I don't know why they will be up for playing a non-Conference team.
Second, Oakland have the speedy receivers that could give the Minnesota Secondary plenty of fits, especially now they are missing their best CB.
Third, teams losing heavily on Monday Night Football (17 + point losers) are just 17-36 against the spread in their next game.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Minnesota Vikings 20-23 Oakland Raiders
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oakland Raiders +1 Point @ 2.00
