NFL Football
2011-11-20 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 11
Sunday 20 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
I have said it before and I am sure I will say it again- don't go against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (9-0)... You have two choices, either back the Packers or don't bet, but DO NOT go against the Packers- not at the moment anyway. The latest team to try will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) and I fear they will be overmatched here.
There isn't a lot to say about the Green Bay Packers- Aaron Rodgers is playing as good at QB position as anyone I have seen in my time watching this sport and he has numerous weapons that makes them pretty much impossible to stop unless they shoot themselves in the foot. The Buccaneers Defense is giving away 263 yards per game through the air and I just don't think they stop Green Bay reaching between 30-40 points again this week.
Whether it is Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Jordy Nelson or any number of other players, the Packers are moving up and down the field at their own pleasure and scoring points for fun.
The one problem for Green Bay is that they have not been effective at running the ball (wasn't much of a problem when they went on a won the SuperBowl last season), and that is something that could be problematic when the weather turns colder, but for now I expect Green Bay keep doing what they are doing.
All of that means I have to find a for Tampa Bay to try and at least keep up with the Packers and that looks a tough ask for an Offense that has been struggling. LeGarrette Blount should find a way to get established in the running game, but the Offense may be forced to move away from that if they find themselves in a hole. That will mean it will be up to Josh Freeman to find a way to get his team moving and scoring.
Freeman has not been in the best this season as he has struggled in making the right decisions to keep the chains moving, and that is highlighted by his 9 TD passes but 13 Interceptions. The Packers Secondary has struggled against the pass this year, but they are still very opportunistic and are likely to create turnovers. This could be the killer for Tampa Bay who are coming off a heavy defeat to Houston when turnovers contributed to the score getting out of hand.
Head to Head
Tampa Bay actually beat Green Bay by 10 points at home in their last meeting in 2009, in a game they were the underdogs by 9.5 points.
That is actually the 3rd consecutive time the Buccaneers have beaten Green Bay and they are now 8-2-1 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
The home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Green Bay are 7-2 against the spread this season, Tampa Bay are 3-6.
Other Interesting Trends
Green Bay are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games at home. They are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a losing record.
Tampa Bay are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
Prediction
As I said in my opening paragraph, either don't bet on Green Bay games or take the Packers - they are destroying teams at the moment and I think they will be able to cover the big spread against a Buccaneers team that could turn the ball over and allow the Pack to get away from them.
Aaron Rodgers has far too many weapons at his disposal and they should score enough points to get the cover as long as they don't lose focus or shoot themselves in the foot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 38-20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
