NFL Football
2011-11-20 - Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 11
Sunday 20 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Who exactly are the Baltimore Ravens (6-3)? Are they the team that have knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers twice this season, or the one that has been beaten by Jacksonville and Seattle? The loss to the Seahawks last week loosened the Ravens grip on the AFC North, and they cannot afford to have another let-down moment when they entertain the surprising Cincinnati Bengals (6-3).
Cincinnati had won 5 games in a row to put themselves in contention in the AFC, but their first real acid test came against Pittsburgh last week as they lost a close one at home. The second half of their schedule means the Bengals cannot let up for a second as they face some of the toughest teams in the League.
It is going to be tough for Andy Dalton and the young Cincinnati Offense this week against the tough Baltimore Defense, although that unit has not been playing that well of late. The problem for Dalton could be that he will find himself in obvious passing situations having to convert long yardage if the Bengals cannot establish a running game. Cincinnati have only gained 3.8 yards per carry this year and Baltimore have been stout against the run so you have to think it will be tough for Cedric Benson to get established.
Fortunately Dalton will not be dealing with Ray Lewis this week who is expected to miss the game, and he is also lucky that AJ Green, the star WR, will be starting after missing a lot of the game last week with an injury sustained on a TD catch. The Bengals Offensive Line will have to be at their best to keep Baltimore's pass rush off Dalton, especially in the likely long passing situations. The Ravens Secondary is susceptible to the pass and that could be something Dalton can take advantage of, although it won't be easy.
Baltimore should have a decent day moving the ball with their own Offense after seeing Rashad Mendenhall hammer the Bengals Defense on the ground last week. As long as Cam Cameron does not lose his mind, I expect Ray Rice to be given the ball and he should be able to keep the Ravens in short and manageable situations. Rice only carried the ball 5 times last week, so I am making the assumption Cameron's play chart will not be chewed up and left in the office this week.
The bigger question that all Baltimore fans want answered is which Joe Flacco will turn up this week- Flacco has fluctuated between the sublime and the embarrassing in games this season. Cincinnati have been tough against the pass this year, but will be missing their best CB Leon Hall this week and that should give Anquon Boldin and Torrey Smith the chance to make plenty of plays IF Flacco has his eye in. With Ray Rice expected to keep the team in manageable situations, I think Flacco can be effective, although I will put in a disclaimer here and say it is all down to Cam Cameron actually watching tapes this week.
Head to Head
Baltimore beat Cincinnati by 6 points when they last played against one another, although the Bengals covered the spread as the 9.5 point underdogs.
That stopped a run of 3 consecutive wins for Cincinnati, all coming as the underdog.
The Bengals are 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series, winning the last 4 consecutively.
Baltimore are 5-4 against the spread this season, Cincinnati are 7-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Baltimore are 5-1 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record. They are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Cincinnati have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog.
Prediction
I did say last week that my biggest concern about Baltimore is they play down to the weaker teams in the NFL, and you can now add Seattle to Jacksonville and Tennessee that have beaten the Ravens. I think they will consider this a 'big' game so I am going back to the well to back the Ravens to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Baltimore have played up to the better teams in the NFL and I think they will consider the Bengals as one of the 'better' teams considering the importance of this within the AFC North.
Second, Cincinnati have a few injuries to contend with, no more important than Leon Hall, and I think they may struggle to keep the Ravens from moving the chains and scoring points this week.
Third, Andy Dalton will have a tough day if the Bengals cannot establish the running game, and that has been a problem for them all season while the Ravens are notoriously tough against the run.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Baltimore Ravens 24-17 Cincinnati Bengals
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Baltimore Ravens -6.5 Points @ 1.95
