NFL Football
2011-11-20 - Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 11
Sunday 20 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The NFC East has been the best Division in the NFL over the last few seasons, but there seems to be a drop off in quality this season as only one of the teams are likely to make the Play Offs.
The Dallas Cowboys (5-4) find themselves just one game behind the New York Giants for the lead of the Division and they cannot afford to take things easy as they visit the slumping Washington Redskins (3-6).
The Redskins looked like they were going to be one of the challengers in the East after winning 3 of their first 4 games, but 5 consecutive defeats leaves them off the pace, while they still have doubts over who should be starting at the QB position. With the NFL very much a passing League, the indecision at the most important position has transferred in indecisive performances on the field.
Dallas come into this one having gone 3-1 in their last 4 games and it is usually around Thanksgiving that Tony Romo puts in his best performances. It was very much the case last week as they dismantled the Buffalo Bills in what was the most complete game played by Romo and the rest of the team.
This won't be an easy day for the Cowboys as the Redskins Defense is definitely a strength. One area where Dallas should be able to find some joy is on the ground, especially since the breakout of DeMarco Murray, a running back with the pace and power that was missing from the Cowboys earlier this season. He will be complemented by Felix Jones this week, and they should have success against the Redskins who have allowed at least 116 yards on the ground in 3 of their last 4 games.
With Murray likely to be running the ball effectively, it should leave Romo in short and manageable situations and will negate the very strong Washington pass rush. I also expect the play-action to be opened up as the likes of Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson stretch the field and make big gains.
The problem then becomes whether the Redskins can keep up, especially considering they have only reached 20 points once in their last 7 games. Dallas have been pretty good against the run all season, barring the game with Philadelphia, and they should be very effective at keeping Rex Grossman in 3rd and long situations. Washington have lost Tim Hightower for the season, and have only been going at 3.9 yards per game on the ground.
That can only lead to bad things for the Redskins Offense as they have really struggled to pass the ball effectively this season. The Offensive Line has struggled to protect Grossman or John Beck behind Center, and now come up against a blitz-happy Defense coached by Rob Ryan. I expect DeMarcus Ware to cause plenty of problems in the backfield and all this makes it tough to see how the Redskins move the ball with any consistency and score enough points to keep up.
Head to Head
Dallas beat Washington by 2 points earlier this season in a game that was notable for 4 botched snaps as Stephen Bowen, a former Cowboy playing for the Redskins, simulated Tony Romo's snap count.
The Redskins covered the spread in that game to improve to 8-2 in the last 10 games in the series.
Washington beat Dallas outright as a 3.5 point underdog the last time they met at Fedex Field.
The underdog is 22-6 against the spread in the last 28 games in the series.
The road team is 7-1 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
Washington are 3-6 against the spread this season, Dallas are 4-4-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Washington have lost their last 5 games against the spread as the underdog.
Dallas are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 games in November.
Prediction
The spread has finally come down a little and I think now is the time to back the Dallas Cowboys for the following reasons:
First, the Cowboys have been putting their best performances in during this time and they will be fully concentrated for the Redskins as it is a Divisional game.
Second, Washington are severely challenged Offensively as they are missing some big components in that unit, and I struggle to see how they score enough points to keep this close.
Third, the road team has been very successful in the recent games in the series between the two teams, winning 6 of the last 7 against the spread.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Washington Redskins 10-24 Dallas Cowboys
