Louisiana State at Ole Mississippi Betting pick | 2011-11-19

NCAA Football

2011-11-19 - Louisiana State at Ole Mississippi

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Louisiana State Tigers @ Ole Mississippi Rebels
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Louisiana State Tigers (10-0) are now just two wins away from winning the SEC West and virtually securing their place in the National Championship Game, although they will look to avoid a let-down spot considering they are due to play Arkansas next week.

The LSU Tigers will not be expecting too many tests from an Ole Mississippi Rebels (2-8) team that have plenty of internal problems to overcome.

These two schools are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to records in the SEC this season, with LSU going 6-0 and the Rebels going 0-6. The Tigers have been hammering teams throughout the season, winning 9 of their 10 games by double-digits, while the Rebels look to have mailed things in as it has been confirmed Houston Nutt will be leaving his post as Head Coach.

The Tigers are not expected to have too many troubles moving the chains against the Rebels. They should be able to run the ball effectively as Ole Miss have been given up 5.2 yards per carry this year and over 210 yards per game.

That will leave either Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee in easy passing situations, although they were not really expected to have too many problems passing against a Secondary that has allowed 215 passing yards per contest. No matter how LSU decide to play it, I expect they will be moving the ball without too many issues.

And it could get a little easier if the Tigers Defense continues playing at the level they have been this season. LSU have been particularly stout against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, and I foresee little problems for them to shut down the Ole Miss running game and making them one-dimensional. The Rebels have been going at 3.5 yards per carry this season, but they were held in check by Louisiana Tech last week and only managed 28 yards on the ground from 31 attempts in a blow-out loss to Alabama.

With the running game expected to be shut down, the Ole Miss Offense will not get much more joy through the air, especially behind an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect players under Center. LSU have only allowed less than 170 yards per game through the air this year and it figures to be tough for the Rebels to move the chains at all, while the field position battle is likely to face LSU throughout the game.

And even if they could do something Offensively, the Rebels have dug a hole for themselves as Randall Mackey, the starting QB, and Jeff Scott, the starting running back, have both been suspended for violating team rules. If the Ole Miss team were going to have it tough moving the chains before, these suspensions could be critical to their chances.

Head to Head

Louisiana State should not be taking this game easy as they have had some tough battles with Ole Miss over the recent seasons.

The Tigers beat the Rebels by 7 points last season in a game they were favoured by 14 points, also meaning they are now 2-8 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.

Ole Miss beat the Tigers by 2 points the last time they played here in 2009, although it was LSU who covered the spread as 6 point underdogs.

LSU are 2-1 against the spread in their last 3 trips to Mississippi.

Ole Miss are are 3-7 against the spread this season, LSU are 7-3.

Other Interesting Trends

Ole Miss are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more.

They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

LSU are just 8-19 against the spread in their last 27 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They have covered the spread in their last 4 games in Conference play.

Prediction

It is a very big spread, but I do like Louisiana State to cover for the following reasons:

First, Ole Miss are missing their two starters at very key positions in the Offense and that is going to make it even harder for them to move the chains in this game.

Second, Louisiana State have been blowing out teams all season and should be far too strong for Ole Miss who look like a team that is looking forward to the end of season and re-grouping for next year.

Third, the Tigers know they have had some close games with Ole Miss in the past and will not let up if they get their foot on their throat in this game.