NCAA Football
2011-11-19 - Southern Methodist at Houston Cougars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Houston Cougars (10-0) remain one of only three teams to be unbeaten through Week 11, but they are unlikely to be called upon to play in the National Championship Game because of the Conference they reside in and the fact their schedule is not as difficult as the other schools. However, they could earn their way into a big BCS Bowl if they can remain unbeaten, starting with the Southern Methodist Mustangs (6-4).
Both schools play in the Conference USA West, a Division that Houston are now expected to win having opened up 6-0 this year. The Mustangs are 4-2 in Conference play, but they have been slumping of late as they have lost 3 of their last 4 games, 2 of those coming against Conference USA opponents.
The Mustangs come into this game having failed to score more than 17 points in 3 of their last 4 games, not ideal preparation against a team like the Cougars that can put up a bunch of points. Zach Line is bound to see more of the ball than usual as SMU will look to run the ball and keep Case Keenum and the Houston Offense off the field. Line has 8 100 yard rushing games this season, and the SMU Offense does go at 4.6 yards per carry when they decide to run. Line should have another successful game against this Defense which has allowed almost 200 yards per game on the ground this year.
JJ McDermott has been the QB that has helped SMU to just under 300 passing yards per contest this season, although he has had a few problems as 13 Interceptions have been recorded alongside his 14 TD passes. McDermott's success could be linked entirely to how the running game is established as Houston have a decent Secondary and can also get effective pressure on the opposition QB, while the SMU Offensive Line has struggled.
On the other side of the ball, I foresee very few problems for the Houston Offense in keeping the chains moving. Case Keenum has been very effective from the QB position and he has been protected very well by the Offensive Line and I think they will once again give their QB time even against this aggressive pass rush the SMU Defense sends at teams.
The problem for most Defenses in the Conference USA is whether they should send more men into coverage to protect against Keenum's throws as all that has done is open up the running lanes for Charles Sims and the rest of the Offense which has gone at 5.6 yards per carry. The Mustangs have been strong against the run this season, but they may release a little pressure in that department to protect against Keenum's throws.
Head to Head
Houston beat SMU by 25 points on the road last season, while the year before they were 23 point winners at home.
The Cougars have won the last 5 games in the series but they have only gone 3-2 against the spread in those games.
Houston are 8-2 against the spread this season, Southern Methodist are 4-6.
Other Interesting Trends
Houston have won their last 6 games against the spread as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.
Southern Methodist are 15-5-2 against the spread in their last 22 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more. They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I think the Houston Cougars will be too strong for Southern Methodist in this game for the following reasons:
First, SMU have been struggling Offensively and have failed to break 17 points in 3 of their last 4 games, a total that will give their Defense a really tough time to even stay within the spread.
Second, Houston are playing very well and will also want to put on a show considering they have the national programme, 'College Gameday', coming to see them for the first time this season.
Third, the Cougars have had their way against SMU in their most recent meetings.
Fourth, Houston are much more likely to cover spreads like these in the comfort of their home turf and they have scored at least 49 points in their last 7 games and that will be tough for this SMU Offense to keep up with.
The Pick :
Houston Cougars 55-31 Southern Methodist
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Houston Cougars -19.5 Points @ 1.92
