Mississippi State at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting pick | 2011-11-19

NCAA Football

2011-11-19 - Mississippi State at Arkansas Razorbacks

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ #6 Arkansas Razorbacks
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

While most have crowned the LSU Tigers as the best team in the SEC, the Arkansas Razorbacks (9-1) know they can still have a big say as they are yet to visit Baton Rouge this season. The Razorbacks also have an absolute outside chance of making the National Championship Game themselves if they can beat the Tigers so they cannot afford to take things easy against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-5).

It is just an unfortunate situation for the Razorbacks that they are in the same Division as both LSU and Alabama, but they have still posted a respectable 5-1 record in the SEC this season. The Bulldogs have not had a great time against the better teams they have played this year, going just 1-5 in the Conference, although they are still one game out from becoming Bowl eligible.

Arkansas have been in impressive form of late and will look to build on that this week, possibly by using the blueprint set out by Alabama last week when they ran all over the Bulldogs. Mississippi State had only given up 4 yards per carry this season, but the Crimson Tide were going at over 5 yards per carry last week and I expect the Razorbacks to have plenty of success doing the same in this game.

Running the ball with success will open up the passing lanes for Tyler Wilson and this Offense that have had plenty of success through the air this season. Wilson has 18 TD passes with just 5 Interceptions through the year and he should have time to find his receivers as the Bulldogs concentrate on stopping the run.

Mississippi State have pounded the ball on the ground fairly well this year through Vick Ballard, going at 4.3 yards per carry and they should have some success against the Razorbacks, although it could be tougher than usual after Arkansas restricted Tennessee on the ground to just 3.3 yards per carry last week.

If the Razorbacks can perform like that again on the Defensive side of the ball, it could be a tough day for the Bulldogs all around as Chris Relf may not be able to take his place at QB after suffering a head injury last week.

If Relf can't go, Tyler Russell will continue under Center after playing for the majority of the game against Alabama last week. Mississippi State have struggled to get the passing game going for much of the season and they could have the same troubles this week against a decent Arkansas Secondary, especially if the Razorbacks control the running lanes.

Head to Head

Arkansas won at Mississippi State by 7 points in OT last season, also covering the spread as the 3 point favourites.

Arkansas have won the last 4 games in the series played at home- they have won these games both straight up and against the spread, winning each game by double-digits.

The home team is 8-1 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series overall.

Arkansas are 6-4 against the spread this season, Mississippi State are 5-5.

Other Interesting Trends

Arkansas are 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games as the favourite. They are 13-4 against the spread in their last 17 games in Conference play.

Mississippi State are 2-8-2 against the spread in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Prediction

I like the Arkansas Razorbacks to win this game going away and making one final statement before their big game with LSU. I will back them for the following reasons:

First, Arkansas have been very good at home this season, and have been battering teams in the last couple of weeks as they get ready to peak for LSU.

Second, the Razorbacks have plenty of Offense and I think it will be hard for the Mississippi State Bulldogs to keep up as they have struggled against the better teams they have played this year.

Third, the Razorbacks have a very good record in recent home games against the Bulldogs, winning their last 4 games with each win coming by at least 14 points.