NCAA Football
2011-11-19 - Kansas State at Texas Longhorns
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, November 17th, 2011, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Kansas State moved to 8-2 last weekend as the Wildcats beat Texas A&M after four OTs. That 53-50 win will have really buoyed this teams confidence and they come to Austin with a 5-2 record in Big 12.
Texas dropped to 6-3 last weekend when they went down 17-5 to Missouri. It was the first time since 2004 that the Longhorns failed to score a TD in a game and they look shorthanded this week too. Not the ideal situation when facing a strong team they have lost to the last 3 times they have met.
Kansas State have actually beaten Texas in 5 of their 7 meetings in the Big 12 and have won the last 2 meetings by a combined 45 points!
Kansas State have not had much problems scoring this season and they got another brilliant performance out of QB Collin Klein as he helped his team come from 10 points behind in the 4th quarter. Klein threw for 281 yards, his career best, and rushed for 103 yards including 5 TDs! That gives him 24 rushing TDs for the Wildcats, another school record.
The Kansas State weakness has been the pass defence, which is ranked 117th and is surrendering 294 yards per game. Texas are known by reputation for being a great passing team but this isn't a team led by Colt McCoy. No, this is now Case McCoy, Colts little brother, as the QB for Texas and behind him this passing offence is gaining just 189 yards through the air, just 92nd best in the country.
The Texas rushing attack has done a lot better though, but might not be able to do that here as they are riddled by injuries. RBs Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron did not play against Missouri and the result was the teams inability to score a single TD. Without the rush, the impetus will be on Case and I just don't think he can do it.
BETTING VERDICT
I don't think the Texas defence can save them here and in a game where Kansas State look very likely to win outright, I'm happy to take them with the 8.5 point start
The Pick :
Kansas State to cover the spread
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Kansas State Wildcats +8.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
