NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI @ UAB

NCAA Football

2011-11-17 - Southern Mississippi at UAB

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI @ UAB
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Thursday, November 17th, 2011, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Very different records here, not that you would expect it looking at the close game these two sides played out last year. UAB went to and beat Southern Mississippi 50-49 in double OT last year. Revenge spot?

Southern Mississippi will want to make amends for that loss as they had previously dominated UAB, winning 9 meetings straight! Speaking of 9, that is how many games So Miss (how annoying is it typing Mississippi?) have won this year, losing just 1 game. That loss came in Week 2 where Southern Miss slipped up against Mashall, but they've more than made up for it. This is a game they are expected to win at a canter, as is evident by their 23 point favourite tag.

UAB came from behind in their last match to upset Memphis, scoring 24 points in the 4th quarter to come back from 35-17 down. That was the biggest comeback win in school history an it took UAB to 2-8 for the season and 2-5 in Conference USA play. Those are the numbers I am interested in as they are not a good side and they have no chance of pulling a surprise here. Anything they get, will come through talent, where they are overmatched.

Why? Because Southern Miss have already been surprised once this season and are now fighting cautious and ready. In case they were about to forget, UAB must have gotten their attention with what they did last week, so Southern Miss will be ready. Then there is the question of a flat spot letdown for UAB which is likely to happen despite them being home. They will be wiped and So Miss come here looking for revenge, which means they are unlikely to back off late on.

This looks a mismatch as Southern Mississippi are scoring on average 19.5 points more than UAB while conceding on average 16 points less.

BETTING VERDICT

The one trend that is worrying me is how 7 of the 11 games played between these 2 has been decided by a TD or less. However, there is a huge gulf in talent this year and I have to go with the favourites to win and cover the big spread.

The Pick :