NFL Football
2011-11-17 - New York Jets at Denver Broncos
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 11
Thursday 17 November 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
I don't know whether it is down to the post-lockout nature of the League, but this has been a strange season in the NFL this year. It could potentially get even weirder if the Denver Broncos (4-5) could knock off the New York Jets (5-4) and actually get into a position of owning the same record as the Jets as well as the head to head record in relation to a potential Wild Card spot.
The Jets lost a major chance to take control of the AFC East when losing in the late Sunday night game to the Patriots, a loss that saw them being swept by New England and essentially 2 games behind in the East. That, coupled with New England's easy schedule, means the Jets are going to have to fight for a Wild Card spot as they travel to Mile High on a short week.
And Mile High should be rocking as their Denver Broncos return home having won back to back road games against Divisional rivals since that ugly blow out by the Detroit Lions here. It seems that John Fox is finally giving Tim Tebow a real chance of winning games by creating a run-first option to utilise his QB's talent- against the Chiefs, Tebow became the first QB since 1974 who had more runs than pass attempts as he finished with 2 completions from 8 attempts.
The option Offense run by Denver is very similar to what Tebow was running during his days as a Florida Gator and it seems unlikely that Denver will ask him to do much more against a vaunted Jets Secondary that will look to feast on anything thrown through the air. Darrelle Revis said as much this week when claiming the biggest worry for him and his team-mates in the Secondary will be fighting 'boredom' as the Jets are expecting a lot of running.
Willis McGahee was injured in the game against Kansas City, but he is expected to join Tebow and Lance Ball as the primary options for the Broncos in the running game.
New York will feel they can do well against the run as they have held Buffalo to under 100 rushing yards and the Patriots to under 70 yards rushing in their last couple of games, even if they had been struggling earlier in the season. The Jets are allowing 4 yards per carry this season, but this will be the first time they will have faced the triple-option Offense that Denver will run.
In saying that, guess who wrote a book about how to stop the different options Offenses can run? Yep, that's right, only Rex Ryan!
Ryan will be expecting much more from his Defense after the showing against New England, but he should have them ready to deal with the Denver Offense considering his knowledge of the system they are set to run. I think Ryan will be happy with Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis against any of the receivers and will be looking to load the box to stop the run and any short passes and screens Tebow tries to use.
There will perhaps be more worries about the Offense that really struggled against New England last Sunday, both in protecting Mark Sanchez, and also with Sanchez tossing 2 Interceptions and calling an ill-advised time out before the half that allowed the Patriots to score a TD.
Sanchez was sacked 5 times against New England and now faces a Broncos Defense that loves getting after the QB, recording 17 sacks in 4 games as Elvis Dumeril and Von Miller cause plenty of problems in the backfield. With Santonio Holmes covered by Champ Bailey, Sanchez will look to utilise Dustin Keller and Pluxico Burress, although he will still need time to allow his receivers to get to their routes.
The Jets will look to get their 'ground and pound' working this week but they have not been consistent in running the ball all season, while the Broncos have been stout in allowing just 4 yards per carry.
It could also be important for the Jets to try and get in front in this game and force Denver to move away from the run and start to throw the ball to keep up, something that saw them implode when playing the Lions in their last game at Mile High.
Head to Head
The New York Jets beat Denver by 4 points when they met last season, a game that was perhaps closer thanks to Mark Sanchez' 2 Interceptions.
Denver won the previous 2 games between the teams, both in blow-out fashion.
The teams have split the last 4 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread.
Both teams are 4-5 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Trends
Denver are 7-19-2 against the spread in their last 28 home games. They are 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
The Broncos are 4-15 against the spread in the previous 19 games they have played before back to back road games.
New York are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 Thursday games.
Prediction
This could be closer than expected, but I do like the New York Jets to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Jets are in desperation mode and I think they put in a big performance after the disappointment of the game against New England last time out. New York cannot afford to lose to AFC rivals who could be potential Wild Card rivals and I think they come out firing.
Second, the Jets have a strong enough Secondary to throw a few more bodies at the line of scrimmage to slow down the running game Denver will look to operate. With Rex Ryan's knowledge of the option Offense, I expect he will have his Defense ready to play.
Third, if the Jets can open up a lead in this game, they could force Denver into a vicious cycle where they are forced to throw the ball more and that could lead to turnovers and mistakes from Tebow that lead to a blow-out.
Fourth, the trend showing how Denver perform against the spread before back to back road games appeals to me, especially considering their next game is against San Diego in an open AFC West.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Denver Broncos 20-27 New York Jets
