NFL Football
2011-11-13 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Dolphins blew out the Kansas City Chiefs last week to leave the Indianapolis Colts (0-9) as the only team in the NFL that is yet to win this season and, perhaps more importantly, left the Colts with the fast track to winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) bring their tough Defense to the Lucas Oil Stadium trying to run further salt into the wounds against a team that has been the bane of Jack Del Rio's Head Coach career at Jacksonville.
Neither team is making the Play Offs this season in what have to be described as disappointing seasons, but both are trying to given new components of their team a chance. With injuries also hurting both teams, I think neither will be too upset when the season finally draws to a close.
The lowest point of the season for the Colts was the embarrassing 62-7 loss to the New Orleans Saints and it seems the team have not quite recovered from that. They have also been guilty of bonehead plays in a number of areas that have stopped them getting close to wins and I have mentioned before that they have looked like a team that is desperate for the 'bye' week which they get after this game.
The Jaguars Defense has been very good this season, and highlighted their improvements in a win over Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football a couple of weeks ago. They have been stout against the run so it will be hard for the Colts to establish Delonte Carter or Donald Brown on the ground. The Jaguars have only allowed 4 yards per carry on the ground and they are likely to load the box and force Curtis Painter to beat them with his arm.
Painter has looked ok at points in games, but has been guilty of making some big mistakes that have cost the Colts. He is going to have a tough day if the running game is not established as the Jaguars have allowed less than 200 passing yards per game this season. Painter has built a good rapport with Pierre Garcon, but will be missing a big piece in the Offense in the form of Dallas Clark, and it could be tough for the Colts to move the chains consistently.
Indianapolis have had issues trying to get a young QB going in recent weeks, but the Jaguars are in the same position as Blaine Gabbert has really showed the struggles rookies can have in the NFL. The Jaguars Offense are averaging just 123 yards per game through the air this season and they will continue using the ground game as their best way of moving the chains and to keep Gabbert in manageable situations.
I expect Maurice Jones-Drew will have a decent game out of the backfield, even if the Colts load the box, as he has been dealing with those issues for much of the season. The running back will have too if he is too keep Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis from trying to get after Gabbert in the backfield. The Jaguars Offensive Line has not had great success in protecting Gabbert and the two Defensive Ends remain some of the best in the NFL.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the two teams this season, and much has changed for both since the Colts beat the Jaguars by 10 points here last season.
The road team is 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
Indianapolis are 2-7 against the spread this season, Jacksonville are 3-4-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Indianapolis are 13-3-1 against the spread in their last 17 games as the underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points. They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Jacksonville are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road favourite.
Prediction
I really am keeping this pick to minimum stakes, but I am going to back the torrid Indianapolis Colts to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, Jacksonville may have a Defense that is capable of keeping them in games, but the Offense alone makes me think they should not be deserving of being made favourites on the road against anyone.
Second, the Colts have suffered some big losses of late, but they have put themselves in big holes early with turnovers and special team errors. Cut those out and they have a chance of winning this game outright.
Third, there is no way the fans at the Stadium will allow the Colts to mail one in against a Divisional rival, and the players should at least be fired up to make a statement to an old rival.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Indianapolis Colts 16-13 Jacksonville Jaguars
