NFL Football
2011-11-13 - Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The NFC North has taken over as the best Division in Football in that Conference and this really represents a big game for two teams looking to hold on to the coat-tails of the Green Bay Packers. With the Packers likely to win the Division, the Chicago Bears (5-3) entertain the Detroit Lions (6-2) knowing this game could have a huge impact on Play Off implications.
After losing a Monday Night game in Mo-Town, Chicago have really turned a corner in all facets of their game, but could be left in a very awkward position if they don't win this game and level up the season series with the Lions. It is very unlikely that 3 teams from a Division would make the Play Offs, especially with a tough looking NFC South looking for more than 1 representative, and a defeat would leave the Bears 2 games behind Detroit and the head to head against them.
The Bears were demoralised by the Detroit front 4 in their defeat against the Lions, with the Offensive Line failing to block rushers and committing numerous false start penalties to leave themselves in a big home on a number of drives. However, they have begun to clean up their game and it is telling that they gave up no sacks in the big win over Philadelphia on Monday Night.
Jay Cutler is a decent enough QB but has not shown his full range of abilities as he has spent a lot of time peeling himself from the floor behind the O-Line. However, we have seen a different, poised Cutler in recent games as he has belief in the protection he is afforded . If Cutler is given that time again this week, he should find a way to expose the Detroit Secondary which has been protected by the pass rush generated up front.
Chicago will also look to slow down any pass rush by running Matt Forte and using the back as much as possible. Forte fumbled twice in the win over the Eagles, but that is a freak occurrence rather than a worry and I expect him to have a big game against a Lions team that has been porous on the ground. With Marion Barber also showing what made him so well liked in Dallas, the Bears could extend drives consistently this week.
Detroit had a bye last week which gave them time to reflect on an impressive first half of the season. Jahvid Best is still out for the Lions and he will be missed as the Bears have been surprisingly bad against the run all season. That means the Offense will look to establish Maurice Morris or else they will have a tough time moving the chains.
That will be because the Bears will drop more men into coverage and force Matt Stafford to throw balls into tight windows, something the QB is capable of, but also something that can be tough to do on a consistent basis against the Chicago Defense. A lack of a running threat will also mean the Bears can come after Stafford, and they should be able to get into the backfield against the Lions Offensive Line that has been struggling in recent games.
Head to Head
Detroit were 11 point winners at home against the Bears earlier this season, although both teams have gone slightly in different directions since then.
The Bears have won their last 3 home games against the Lions, although they are only 1-2 against the spread in those games.
The Lions are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series overall.
The underdog is 17-8 against the spread in the last 25 games in the series.
Chicago are 4-4 against the spread this season, Detroit are 5-2-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Chicago are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games following an appearance on Monday Night Football. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite.
Detroit have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog. They are 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 15 games against teams from the NFC.
The Lions are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against fellow Divisional rivals.
Prediction
I am going to back the Chicago Bears to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Chicago are playing some great Football right now and are in a great place Offensively. If the Line plays as it has been, they will provide Cutler with time to hurt the Detroit Secondary.
Second, Detroit have been looking a little one-dimensional without Jahvid Best and that will allow the Bears to deploy their pass rush and force Stafford into mistakes and create sacks.
Third, Chicago will be desperate to win this game and get themselves in a good position in to the Play Off race, while they haven't lost to Detroit at home since 2007.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chicago Bears 27-21 Detroit Lions
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Chicago Bears -2.5 Points @ 1.92
