NFL Football
2011-11-13 - New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
These two teams are leading the way in their respective Divisions, with both the New York Giants (6-2) and the San Francisco Giants (7-1) holding at least a couple game advantages over the chasing teams. But don't think either team will want to relax as this is a game that could have serious Play Off implications in the NFC for January, especially when it comes to seeding and possibly earning a bye through the Wild Card weekend.
San Francisco are definitely in the more comfortable position as they lead the NFC West by 5 games, and the 49ers would actually be the Number 2 seed in the NFC if the Play Offs started today. Jim Harbaugh has really been turning things around in this part of the Bay Area and has even got Alex Smith looking like a real QB.
Smith has been efficient this season and that is all that is required of him with the team playing the way they are. He will need to rely on the ground game to keep the Offense in short and manageable situations and that shouldn't be a problem with Frank Gore playing at a very high level at the moment. The Giants have struggled stopping the run all season so I expect the 49ers will be able to move the chains and earn chunks of yards on the ground.
On the other hand, the Giants Defense will look to load the box and force Smith to beat them with his arm. If they can get San Francisco in obvious passing situations, they will be able to unleash their pass rush which has run up the most sacks this season in the NFL. The Giants Secondary has been protected by this pass rush, although the 49ers have protected Smith fairly well so far this year.
The Giants earned a big win at New England last week thanks to a very effective drive set up by Eli Manning- the QB is beginning to get his dues by a much wider audience after being criticised in recent seasons, and he may get more props this week as there will be a lot riding on his arm.
San Francisco have been particularly effective at shutting down the running game of their opponents, giving up just 3.5 yards per carry, and they will think they can do the same to New York who will be missing Ahmad Bradshaw again this week. The bulk of the carries will be given to Brandon Jacobs, who had a good week last Sunday against New England, but the Giants have struggled with their ground game for much of the season.
That may not be the end of the world for the Offense though as the 49ers biggest weakness is in their Secondary. The Giants have Hakeem Nicks back this week to boost a receiving corps that includes Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz, while Jake Ballard is showing his worth at Tight End more and more.
The 49ers have allowed 255 passing yards per game this season, but they also have an effective pass rush that will be able to take advantage of the Giants Offensive Line. The key for Manning will be to get something out of his running backs and also using quick passes to negate the pass rush the 49ers generate.
Head to Head
The teams last met in the 2008 season when the Giants won by 12 points at home.
They last played in San Francisco in the 2005 season, as New York recorded an 18 point win.
The Giants have covered the spread in all 5 games these teams have played in the last decade.
San Francisco are 7-0-1 against the spread this season, New York are 4-3-1.
Other Interesting Trends
San Francisco have won their last 4 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against teams from the NFC.
New York are 14-6 against the spread in their last 20 games as the road underdog. They are 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I know the New York Giants are travelling across the country, but I like them to keep this game close and will take them with the points for the following reasons:
First, I don't buy the fact this game means more to the 49ers than it does to the Giants as it could have serious Play Off implications for both. I also don't think it is as difficult going from East to West as it is for the West Coast teams going the other way.
Second, the Giants have a very good passing Offense when they allow Eli Manning to get going and they can take advantage of the 49ers Defensive weakness.
Third, the Giants always seem to play up to their opponents as they have against New England and Philadelphia this season, so I think they will be fully 'up' for this game against one of the leading teams in the NFC.
Fourth, San Francisco are just not built to blow teams away, but they are a ball controlling Offense that will look to grind out wins wherever possible.
Take away the win over Tampa Bay and teams have had chances to get close late - the Giants have had some big drives in the 4th Quarter this season and another could give them a slim win or a chance to getting close.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Francisco 49ers 20-21 New York Giants
