NFL Football
2011-11-13 - Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is actually a bigger game for the Baltimore Ravens (6-2) than people may initially think as they have a chance to prove themselves as the team to beat in the AFC. The Seattle Seahawks (2-6) do not look like a team that is going anywhere fast, but the Ravens have been caught short by the 'lesser' teams in the NFL already this season and they also have to travel across the country to one of the loudest stadiums.
Baltimore's win at Pittsburgh means they have beaten last seasons AFC representative in the SuperBowl twice this season and now have the inside track in the AFC North which should also lead to a top 2 seeding in the Play Offs. However, they have been beaten by Tennessee and Jacksonville in their two losses which suggests there may be some element lacking when they play the 'weaker' teams on their schedule.
Seattle themselves may be the reigning NFC West Champions, but they will not be making the Play Offs with a losing record this season and it already looks like too much of a gap to make up on the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks are 5 games behind the 49ers with half the season left to play and they will have to continue their rebuilding effort in the off-season.
The problem for the Seahawks is that it looks very difficult for them to move the chains in this game against the toughest Defense they will have seen all season- they already played Pittsburgh, albeit on the road, and failed to score a point and the Ravens are tougher in my opinion.
It will be hard for Seattle to rely on Marshawn Lynch to earn tough yards on the ground this week and to give their Offense short and manageable situations as the Ravens are only allowing 3.4 yards per carry. Baltimore may also load up the box to force Tavaris Jackson to beat them with his arm and that will bode well for an Offensive Line that has been struggling all year.
Baltimore have gained 26 sacks this season, the 2nd most in the League, and should be able to get after Jackson, despite his scrambling ability, as the Seahawks have allowed 29 sacks. The Ravens have allowed less than 200 passing yards per game this season, and it just looks like being a tough day all round for the Seattle Offense.
The key will be whether Baltimore can 'get up' for this game following their tremendous effort in beating Pittsburgh last week. As I mentioned above, they have played badly in losses to Tennessee and Jacksonville, both on the road, while barely squeaking by Arizona at home, yet they have also recorded wins over Pittsburgh twice and the New York Jets.
Baltimore should be boosted by the tape that showed DeMarco Murray run all over the previously stout Seattle run Defense, so I expect Ray Rice will be able to get things going on the ground despite the Seahawks only allowing 3.4 yards per carry this season. Rice will also be an effective weapon coming out of the backfield in check down situations.
Joe Flacco should then get time in the pocket if Rice is established as the Seahawks have struggled to generate an effective pass rush all season, recording 13 sacks on the year. Seattle have also struggled against the pass in the Secondary and could have a tough time with the mixture of speed and experience the Ravens have in the wide receiver corps.
Head to Head
These two teams last met in 2007 with the Seattle Seahawks winning by 21 points at home - however, just to show you how much things have changed in the last 4 seasons, the Seahawks were 12.5 point FAVOURITES in that game.
Seattle are 4-3-1 against the spread this season, Baltimore are 5-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Seattle are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 7-19-1 against the spread in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.
Baltimore are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
I am going to take Baltimore to win this game and cover the spread while reversing a couple of trends for the following reasons:
First, I am struggling to get a picture of how Seattle will be able to move the ball with any consistency in this contest and that should allow Baltimore to win the field position battle.
Second, Baltimore should be able to establish a running game following Dallas' blueprint from last week, and that should open up the passing lanes for Joe Flacco. I also expect the QB to have time in the pocket to find his receivers in deep routes.
Third, Seattle have been struggling for points in recent contests, and failed to score against Pittsburgh, albeit on the road, yet Baltimore is a tougher Defense to get things going against.
I do have a couple of concerns as Baltimore are playing this game between two Divisional contests against the Steelers and Bengals, and the Ravens have played down to opponents in the 3 games I mentioned in the preview.
However, I think they know they have the edge in the AFC North now and they will not want to give up that advantage with another poor performance, while my overriding feeling is Seattle are going to have a tough time scoring more than 13 points, meaning Baltimore won't have too much to do to cover.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Seattle Seahawks 13-24 Baltimore Ravens
