Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys Betting pick | 2011-11-13

NFL Football

2011-11-13 - Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

Both of these teams have had tough losses in the last couple of weeks and neither can afford to keep dropping games if their ambitions of making the Play Offs are to be realised.

The Buffalo Bills (5-3) made a fast start to the season, but they have lost control of the AFC East with 3 losses in their last 5 games. The Dallas Cowboys (4-4) are 2 games behind the New York Giants in the NFC East, and they too have lost 3 of their last 5 games.

The Bills were beaten heavily at home by the New York Jets last week and have begun to struggle on both sides of the ball, although they continue to create turnovers to at least give themselves a chance in games.

Ryan Fitzpatrick really struggled against Rex Ryan's Jets Defense last week, throwing 2 more Interceptions to take his tally to 6 in the last 4 games they have played. He will not have things much easier against Rob Ryan's Defense in Dallas, one that has created an effective pass rush using the talents of DeMarcus Ware. The Cowboys have played the pass well this season for the most part and will be boosted by the return of Sean Lee in the Linebacker Corps as Keith Brooking had been seriously exposed recently.

Fred Jackson will be hoping he can replicate what LeSean McCoy achieved against Dallas recently, but the Cowboys had been pretty good against the run all season. The return of Lee again will be a contributing factor to helping stop the run, although it will be tough to completely take away Jackson who has been so good all season.

The Dallas Offense should be able to have a good day against the Bills Defense since they have been struggling without Kyle Williams who is likely to be missing for the rest of the season. That problem in the centre of their Defensive Line has given the opposition QBs time to expose a Secondary that has struggled to stop teams passing the ball all over them. The absence of Williams means Tony Romo should have a decent game, even without Miles Austin, and I expect Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to be the favourite targets.

Romo will be given additional help thanks to DeMarco Murray, the rookie running back really taking his chance in the team in the absence of Felix Jones. Murray should have plenty of success again this week against a Bills team that has allowed 4.6 yards per carry, and he really showed his talent by gaining big yards against Seattle last week, a team that has excelled against the run this season.

With Murray running the ball as effectively as I think he will, the Cowboys Offense should be able to move the ball up and down the field against the Bills barring Romo having one of his mistake-ridden games.

Head to Head

This is the first meeting between the teams since 2007 when Dallas scored a late FG to beat the Bills by 1 point on the road in a game they were favoured by over 10 points.

They last met in Dallas in 2003 when the Cowboys won by 4 points.

Dallas are 3-4-1 against the spread this season, Buffalo are 4-3-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Dallas are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourites of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have lost their last 4 games against the spread following a straight up win.

The Cowboys are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record.

Buffalo are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have lost their last 4 games against the spread following a double-digit loss at home.

Prediction

I am going to back the Dallas Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Dallas have found a real running game that is given the Offense added impetus and allowing Tony Romo to get a little more time to find his receivers. He will also have time against a Buffalo Defense that has not found an effective pass rush this season (outside of the 9 sacks against Washington in one game).

Second, the Buffalo Offense has hit a bit of a buffer of late and we saw how Rex Ryan confused Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and I think Rob Ryan will have his Defense ready to do the same thing this week.

Third, Dallas are already 2 games behind the Giants in the NFC East and I think this game means more to them, while the Bills may just be focusing on their Divisional game with Miami next week.

The Statistics :

DALLAS COWBOYS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-11-06	W	23-13	H v Seattle Seahawks
	2011-10-23	W	34-7	H v St. Louis Rams
	2011-10-02	L	30-34	H v Detroit Lions
	2011-09-26	W	18-16	H v Washington Redskins
	2010-12-19	W	33-30	H v Washington Redskins
	2010-12-12	L	27-30	H v Philadelphia Eagles

BUFFALO BILLS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-10-16	L	27-24	A v New York Giants
	2011-10-02	L	23-20	A v Cincinnati Bengals
	2011-09-11	W	7-41	A v Kansas City Chiefs
	2011-01-02	L	38-7	A v New York Jets
	2010-12-19	W	14-17	A v Miami Dolphins
	2010-12-05	L	38-14	A v Minnesota Vikings